Daily Tips June 26
Curacao vs Ivory Coast
Ivory Coast -1.5 ($1.87)
Ivory Coast head into their final group game on 3 points, holding second after Amad Diallo’s late winner against Ecuador and a 1-2 loss to Germany. A draw against Curacao is enough to go through, so I expect them to push for the win rather than play it safe.
Curacao are debutants and have a single point, from a 0-0 with Ecuador. They conceded seven against Germany on day one, which is where the handicap interests me. Simon Adingra and Amad Diallo give Ivory Coast enough to win by a couple.
There’s risk in this tip, however. That Ecuador clean sheet says Curacao can dig in, so -1.5 is no formality, but it’s the call I’m happy with.
✓ Long Shot: Curacao to win ($9.00)
✓ Extra Tip: Over 2.5 goals ($1.77)
Ecuador vs Germany
Germany to beat Ecuador ($1.72)
Germany have already won Group E with two from two, a 7-1 thrashing of Curacao and a 2-1 win over Ivory Coast. First place is locked, so they could rotate, but even a changed Germany side has scored in both games here and looks a level above this group.
Ecuador are the problem for the neutral. They’ve drawn a blank in both matches, a 0-1 loss to Ivory Coast and that goalless draw with Curacao, and now need a win to have any hope of going through. Going for it against Germany is a tall order with a forward line yet to score.
This is my anchor leg. I don’t love backing a side with nothing to play for, so the hedge is obvious, but Germany’s strength in depth gives me enough at $1.72.
✓ Long Shot: Ecuador to win ($5.15)
✓ Extra Tip: Over 2.5 goals ($1.85)
Japan vs Sweden
Japan to beat Sweden ($2.23)
Japan are in control of Group F on 4 points after a 2-2 with the Netherlands and a 4-0 win over Tunisia. A draw against Sweden sends them through, which is a comfortable place to be.
Sweden have to win. They beat Tunisia 5-1 then lost 1-5 to the Netherlands, and they haven’t had a clean sheet here. A Sweden side chasing the game leaves space, and Japan looked sharp going forward against Tunisia.
Takefusa Kubo is out for Japan, which is a loss, but Ayase Ueda and Daichi Kamada have enough between them. If you’ve got free bets spare for the knockouts, this is a tidy spot to use one. I’ll take Japan at $2.23.
✓ Long Shot: Sweden to win ($3.55)
✓ Extra Tip: Both teams to score ($1.90)
Tunisia vs Netherlands
Over 2.5 goals ($1.70)
The Netherlands top the group on goal difference and are all but through, so this comes down to whether they score freely against a Tunisia side already eliminated. I think they will.
Tunisia lost 5-1 to Sweden and 4-0 to Japan, conceding four or more in consecutive games, and they’re 47th in the FIFA rankings against a Dutch side up at 7th. Cody Gakpo and Brian Brobbey were among the goals in the 5-1 win over Sweden, and that attack won’t ease off even with a knockout place secured.
Most NZ betting sites have over 2.5 goals around $1.70, which I prefer to the cramped $1.30 on a Netherlands win. The only worry is rotation pulling their teeth a little, but Tunisia have given up goals to everyone.
✓ Long Shot: Tunisia to win ($10.50)
✓ Extra Tip: Both teams to score ($2.05)
Turkiye vs USA
Turkiye to beat USA ($2.60)
This is the one I’m least sure about, so treat it that way. The USA have won Group D and locked first place, which means they can rest players for the knockouts, with Christian Pulisic and several others on yellow-card warnings they won’t want to risk.
Turkiye are out after losing to Australia and Paraguay, so pride is all that’s left. A full-strength Turkiye against a rotated USA second string is closer than the group table suggests, and the $2.60 on Turkiye looks generous to me.
One caveat: predicting line-ups three days out is guesswork, and if the USA name a strong XI this bet falls apart. Most betting apps will let you change once the teams drop, so that could be the move.
✓ Long Shot: Draw ($3.85)
✓ Extra Tip: Over 2.5 goals ($1.90)
Paraguay vs Australia
Paraguay to beat Australia ($2.20)
Straight knockout, this one. Australia are second on goal difference with 3 points, so a draw or a win takes them through. Paraguay, also on 3 but with a worse goal difference, have to win.
That do-or-die situation is why I’m with Paraguay. A side that must go and win usually plays with more urgency than one happy to defend a point, and Julio Enciso gives them a spark in behind with Antonio Sanabria leading the line.
There’s a real dent here, mind. Miguel Almiron is suspended after his red card against Turkiye on June 19, so Paraguay lose an attacking outlet. Australia will defend deep and counter, and they’re hard to break down, so I’m not pretending this is comfortable. The draw is a live result at around $3.00, but Paraguay’s need is greater and $2.20 is fair on the side doing the pushing.
✓ Long Shot: Australia to win ($3.55)
✓ Extra Tip: Under 2.5 goals ($1.75)
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