Daily Tips June 27
Norway vs France
Over 2.5 goals ($1.95)
Both sides are already qualified, but there’s still plenty to play for. France need a draw to top Group I, while Norway need a win.
France have scored six goals in two matches and just blanked Iraq in their second outing. Norway have netted seven, with Erling Haaland scoring twice in their opener against Iraq. Kylian Mbappe is on four goals for the tournament - a brace against Senegal and another against Iraq - and sits one behind Lionel Messi in the Golden Boot race.
Martin Odegaard has been brilliant for Norway from the number 10 position. I’m not confident picking a winner, but with two attacking sides and real incentive on both ends, Over 2.5 at $1.95 looks comfortable.
✓ Long Shot: Haaland to score first ($5.50)
✓ Extra Tip: Both teams to score ($1.90)
Senegal vs Iraq
Senegal to win ($1.33)
Neither side can finish in the top two - France and Norway have locked that up with six points each. But Senegal can still qualify as a best third-placed team if they take three points and other results go their way.
Iraq have conceded seven goals across two games and offered next to nothing going forward. Senegal lost 1-3 to France and 2-3 to Norway, and in both games they created enough chances to suggest they’re better than their record.
I don’t love backing a team at $1.33 who’ve lost twice, but Iraq look spent. Senegal’s slim hopes should provide motivation too.
✓ Long Shot: Senegal 2-0 correct score ($6.50)
✓ Extra Tip: Under 2.5 goals ($2.00)
Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia
Cape Verde to win ($2.45)
Cape Verde have been one of the great underdog stories at this World Cup. Two points from two games - a goalless draw against Spain and a 2-2 comeback against Uruguay - and now they can book a place in the last 32 with a win against the weakest remaining side in Group H.
Saudi Arabia have one point and were demolished 4-0 by Spain in round two. Vozinha, Cape Verde’s 40-year-old goalkeeper, has been outstanding. Kevin Pina’s 35-yard free kick against Uruguay was one of the goals of the tournament.
At $2.45, I think Cape Verde are underpriced given how they’ve competed against far stronger opposition. Saudi Arabia need a win themselves, which could leave space on the counter.
✓ Long Shot: Kevin Pina anytime scorer ($7.00)
✓ Extra Tip: Under 2.5 goals ($1.80)
Uruguay vs Spain
Spain to win ($1.50)
Spain looked like themselves again when they dismantled Saudi Arabia 4-0 in round two. Lamine Yamal scored inside 10 minutes before being rested - a clear sign he was being saved for this fixture.
Uruguay have drawn both games and need a result to avoid elimination, especially if Cape Verde win in the other Group H match. But needing a result against this Spain side is a big ask for any team right now.
I expect Yamal and Nico Williams to cause problems on the counter if Uruguay commit forward. Spain at $1.50 is short but I can’t argue against it.
✓ Long Shot: Lamine Yamal anytime scorer ($2.60)
✓ Extra Tip: Over 2.5 goals ($1.85)
Egypt vs Iran
Egypt to win ($2.40)
Egypt go into this as Group G leaders after coming from 1-0 down to beat New Zealand 3-1. Mohamed Salah scored and assisted in that game, extending his record of contributing a goal or an assist in every World Cup match he’s played - a run stretching back to Russia 2018.
Mostafa Zico’s equalising header and Trezeguet’s late diving effort showed the depth beyond Salah. Iran have drawn both their games and couldn’t find the net against Belgium even after Nathan Ngoy’s red card left the Belgians a man short for 24 minutes.
A win here puts Egypt top of the group. I’m backing the side with the better attack at $2.40 - Salah and Omar Marmoush give them firepower Iran can’t match.
✓ Long Shot: Egypt to win to nil ($4.50)
✓ Extra Tip: Under 2.5 goals ($1.95)
New Zealand vs Belgium
Belgium to win ($1.30)
Ugly odds, but I don’t see another outcome. Belgium have been poor - two draws, no goals from open play, and Jeremy Doku was unavailable against Iran due to illness.
But Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku are still in the squad, and desperation can unlock what two underwhelming performances couldn’t. Ngoy is suspended after his red card, which forces a reshuffle at the back.
With Egypt expected to beat Iran in the other Group G fixture, Belgium need three points here or they’re heading home. New Zealand led Egypt 1-0 through Finn Surman’s header before fading in the second half. I’m not going to pretend $1.30 is exciting. I just think Belgium get there.
✓ Long Shot: Chris Wood anytime scorer ($4.50)
✓ Extra Tip: Belgium -1.5 ($2.50)
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