Daily Tips June 28
Panama vs England
England to win ($1.25)
England have already qualified and will almost certainly rotate here. Thomas Tuchel rested Bukayo Saka and John Stones against Ghana, and I’d expect more changes against an eliminated Panama side that haven’t scored a goal in this tournament.
It doesn’t take much from England to win this, even with a second-string XI. Harry Kane has two goals and will want more, and the depth on their bench - Ollie Watkins, Eberechi Eze, Morgan Rogers - is better than most teams’ first choice. Panama’s defensive structure is decent but they’ve created almost nothing going forward across two games.
$1.25 is short but it’s as safe as anything on this card.
✓ Long Shot: England to win 3-0 ($7.00)
✓ Extra Tip: Over 2.5 goals ($1.55)
Croatia vs Ghana
Croatia to win ($1.72)
This is where the drama is in Group L. Croatia are third on three points, one behind England and Ghana, and a draw eliminates them. I’m backing them to find the urgency they need.
Luka Modric played all 90 minutes in the 1-0 win over Panama after recovering from his cheekbone injury, and Ante Budimir got the only goal. Croatia’s 4-2 loss to England on the opening day was rough, but they responded with the kind of gritty performance that tournament-hardened sides tend to produce.
Ghana’s 0-0 against England was disciplined, but I’m not sure Carlos Queiroz will set up as defensively here. Ghana know a point is enough for them, but they also know a defeat could cost them everything if Panama pull off a miracle against England. I think Croatia’s experience in these pressure moments gets them through.
✓ Long Shot: Croatia to win 2-0 ($6.50)
✓ Extra Tip: Under 2.5 goals ($1.65)
Colombia vs Portugal
Draw ($3.20)
Colombia have six points and are through. Portugal have four and are all but guaranteed a knockout place too. Both sides will want to top the group, but neither needs to force the issue.
Cristiano Ronaldo scored twice against Uzbekistan to become the first man in history to score at six different World Cups, and Portugal look a different side after their sluggish 1-1 draw with DR Congo on the opening day. Colombia ground out a 1-0 win against DR Congo through Daniel Munoz’s 76th-minute strike - effective if not spectacular.
Hard Rock Stadium in Miami will feel close to a home game for Colombia. I can see both teams being cagey, with one eye on the bracket. A draw suits Portugal just fine, and Colombia have no reason to overcommit against Ronaldo and Bruno Fernandes.
✓ Long Shot: Colombia to win 1-0 ($8.00)
✓ Extra Tip: Under 2.5 goals ($1.65)
DR Congo vs Uzbekistan
DR Congo to win ($2.00)
DR Congo have a single point from their 1-1 draw with Portugal on the opening day and then a narrow 1-0 loss to Colombia. Uzbekistan have zero points and a goal difference of minus seven after getting thumped 5-0 by Portugal.
Yoane Wissa was DR Congo’s scorer against Portugal and has been their most dangerous attacker. Goalkeeper Lionel Mpasi was outstanding against Colombia, making five saves in the first 20 minutes alone. If they turn up with that same defensive intensity against an Uzbekistan side that has been outclassed in both games, I’m confident they’ll get the win.
DR Congo will know a result here, combined with the right scoreline from Colombia vs Portugal, could still get them into the knockouts as a best third-placed team.
✓ Long Shot: DR Congo -1.5 handicap ($4.20)
✓ Extra Tip: BTTS Yes ($1.85)
Algeria vs Austria
Austria to win ($2.45)
Both teams are on three points, and whoever wins this almost certainly advances. Austria’s goal difference is level after beating Jordan 3-1 and losing 0-2 to Argentina. Algeria’s sits at minus two after a 0-3 hammering by Argentina followed by a 2-1 comeback win against Jordan.
I’m going Austria here because Ralf Rangnick’s pressing system has been one of the more cohesive tactical setups in the tournament. Marcel Sabitzer and Romano Schmid can hurt Algeria in transition. Algeria were impressive in the second half against Jordan - Nadhir Benbouali and Amine Gouiri scoring from set pieces to turn the game around - but I’m not convinced they can sustain that against a more organised opponent.
There’s a subplot here too. At the 1982 World Cup, Austria and West Germany were accused of colluding in their final group game to eliminate Algeria. The Algerians will want payback, and that could either inspire them or push them into emotional mistakes.
✓ Long Shot: Draw and under 2.5 goals ($4.50)
✓ Extra Tip: Under 2.5 goals ($1.55)
Jordan vs Argentina
Argentina to win ($1.20)
Argentina wrapped up the group with a game to spare after Lionel Messi scored twice against Austria to take his all-time World Cup tally to 18 - passing Miroslav Klose’s record of 16 that he’d only tied with his hat-trick against Algeria four days earlier. Jordan are already eliminated after losses to Austria and Algeria.
I expect Lionel Scaloni to rotate heavily. Julian Alvarez, Nicolas Paz, and Giuliano Simeone could all get a run, and Argentina’s backup options would walk into most squads at this tournament. Jordan competed hard in both defeats - Nizar Al-Rashdan’s first-half strike against Algeria was a superb hit from outside the box - but they haven’t been able to sustain pressure against top sides.
$1.20 is the shortest price on the slate, and I can’t argue with it.
✓ Long Shot: Under 1.5 total goals ($3.20)
✓ Extra Tip: Under 2.5 goals ($2.30)
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