FIFA World Cup Qualifying: Italy vs Northern Ireland - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a four-time World Cup winner carry this much anxiety into a home fixture. 

Italy take on Northern Ireland in Bergamo on Friday morning New Zealand time in a FIFA World Cup qualifying playoff semi-final, and the weight of two straight failures hangs over everything. Sweden knocked them out in 2017, and North Macedonia did it again in 2022. A third consecutive miss would be catastrophic. 

In this Italy vs Northern Ireland preview, I look at why Gattuso’s squad should get the job done - and where the handicap at around $1.85 offers value on NZ betting sites.

Italy

The talent in this squad shouldn’t need a playoff to reach a World Cup. Italy finished second in Group I behind Norway - two defeats to Haaland and company were their only losses across eight qualifiers. They scored 21 goals in the process.

Off the pitch, things have been messy. Gattuso recalled Federico Chiesa from Liverpool, only to send him home from training camp within days - suggesting his head wasn’t right. Gianluca Scamacca has pulled out with an adductor problem, and Alessandro Bastoni is racing to prove his fitness after a bruised fibula in the Milan derby.

But despite all the drama, I still think they’re fine. Gianluigi Donnarumma at Manchester City, Riccardo Calafiori at Arsenal, Nicolo Barella and Davide Frattesi at Inter, Sandro Tonali running things at Newcastle - the spine is packed with Champions League quality. Moise Kean has been superb for Fiorentina. Gattuso chose the 23,500-seat Stadio di Bergamo over the San Siro to avoid hostile whistles from rival club fans, which feels like a smart call.

Team News: Chiesa (sent home from camp), Scamacca (adductor) are out. Bastoni and Tonali are carrying knocks but expected to feature. Cambiaghi called up as replacement.

Predicted Lineup: Donnarumma; Cambiaso, Bastoni, Buongiorno, Dimarco; Barella, Locatelli, Frattesi; Politano, Retegui, Kean.

Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland are here through their Nations League group win, having finished third in qualifying Group A behind Germany and Slovakia. Michael O’Neill knows what he’s doing at international level - he took this team to Euro 2016 and understands how to organise a side that’s outgunned on paper.

Their plan will be predictable but effective if executed well: sit deep, stay compact, frustrate Italy, and hope for a set piece or counter. It’s exactly what North Macedonia did four years ago. The question is whether Northern Ireland have someone capable of producing a moment of magic.

Losing Daniel Ballard to a hamstring injury is a real blow. The Sunderland centre-back is one of their few players with regular top-flight experience. Conor Bradley of Liverpool has been out since January with a knee injury. Without those two, their defensive structure is a little fragile.

Team News: Ballard (hamstring) and Bradley (knee) are both ruled out. No other major absences confirmed.

Predicted Lineup: Peacock-Farrell; McNair, Cathcart, Brown; Hume, Charles, Saville, Lewis; Devenny, Price, Marshall.

• Italy have won 21 of their last 24 competitive home matches.
• Northern Ireland have never beaten Italy in a competitive fixture.
• Italy scored 21 goals in eight World Cup qualifying matches.
• Northern Ireland managed just seven goals across their six qualifiers.
• Italy have been eliminated in their last two World Cup playoff campaigns.

Italy should win this. On paper, it’s the most lopsided semi-final of the playoff round - the gap in squad quality is enormous. Barella, Frattesi and Tonali should dominate midfield, and Northern Ireland don’t have the attacking weapons to cause sustained problems.

Of course, I said similar things before the North Macedonia match in 2022. But Gattuso has had months to prepare, the venue is smaller and more intimate, and this Italian squad has been through enough heartbreak to understand what’s at stake.

I’m going 2-0 or 3-0 Italy. Northern Ireland will be organised early but they’ll tire, and Italy should pick them apart after the break. If you’re checking football tips this week, the Italy handicap is one of the safer plays across the semi-finals.

Italy -1.5 Goals @ $1.85

Northern Ireland will sit deep, but their squad doesn’t have the depth to contain Italy for 90 minutes. With Ballard out, their defensive structure looks vulnerable. Gattuso’s side have been averaging over 2.5 goals per game at home in qualifying.

At $1.85, the handicap looks well-priced for a match where the home side should dominate possession and create enough chances to cover. For anyone browsing betting apps NZ, this is one of the more straight forward plays on the playoff card.