NBA Odds, Best Bets and Expert Tips | June 4

I’ve got three NBA Finals picks across betting sites in NZ for Thursday afternoon NZT. San Antonio went 32-8 at home this season and have Victor Wembanyama playing the best basketball of his career. Yet New York arrive on an 11-game playoff win streak and with a +271 point differential – the largest in NBA history heading into the Finals. Read on for my tips on the opening clash.

Spurs -4.5 | $1.90 @ VipLuck

I’m backing San Antonio to cover at home. Wembanyama won the Western Conference Finals MVP with 27.3 points and 10.9 rebounds per game against an Oklahoma City team that finished 64-18. The Frost Bank Center will be fizzing for the franchise’s first Finals since 2014, and San Antonio’s bench depth is underrated (Keldon Johnson won Sixth Man of the Year, remember?).

New York haven’t played since May 25 – that’s nine days off. The Knicks came out sluggish early in their Conference Finals opener against Cleveland before pulling away. Mitchell Robinson had surgery on a broken right pinky last Thursday. Mike Brown wasn’t sure of his status as late as Tuesday.

All this to say, I’m pretty confident the Spurs take the opener here.

Over 218.5 | $1.95 @ Betandplay

The over has gone 10-2 in San Antonio’s last 12 games and 4-1 in New York’s last five. These two combined for over 218.5 in two of their three meetings this season, and they averaged 236.3 points per game across the full regular season – nearly 18 clear of this line.

New York’s defence was solid during the regular season but this Spurs offence is a different puzzle to anything the Knicks faced in the East. Wembanyama scores from everywhere, and Julian Champagnie went 6-for-10 from deep in Game 7. 

I’d be watching this one on live betting sites – if Game 1 opens up early, 218.5 won’t last.

Knicks ML | $2.65 @ Betista

Despite all I’ve just said, at $2.65, I think the Knicks are good value to win outright – worth a small bet to hedge.

New York have won 11 straight playoff games by an average margin of nearly 24 points and won two of three meetings against the Spurs this season.

Jalen Brunson scored 15 with five assists in the ECF closeout without needing to force anything. Karl-Anthony Towns had 19 points and 14 rebounds. If Mitchell Robinson suits up with his protective brace, New York’s rotation is close to full strength. Nine days of prep for a coaching staff with this much Finals experience makes a difference.

I don’t love the matchup against Wembanyama. But pricing this Knicks team as a significant road underdog feels like too much respect for home court.