NBA Odds, Best Bets and Expert Tips | May 5

I’ve got three NBA tips across betting apps in NZ for Tuesday’s double-header.

Philadelphia are walking into the Garden on two days’ rest after a seven-game war with Boston, and the Timberwolves are somehow still alive despite losing Anthony Edwards for the foreseeable future.

Knicks -7.5 | $1.90 @ VipLuck

Philadelphia’s legs worry me.

They needed seven games to get past Boston after coming through the play-in, and they’ve had barely 48 hours to recover before facing a Knicks team that’s been resting since Friday. New York destroyed Atlanta 140-89 in their Game 6 closeout - the 83-36 halftime lead was the largest in NBA playoff history.

Joel Embiid is the wildcard.

He returned from an emergency appendectomy for Game 4 of the Boston series and put up 34 points and 12 rebounds in Game 7. But he took a shot to his knee late in that game and was limping afterward. He claimed he was faking it in postgame, which is classic Embiid, but the turnaround is brutal regardless.

Karl-Anthony Towns had a pair of triple-doubles against the Hawks.

New York are 53-29 with four days’ rest and home court. I’m comfortable giving up 7.5.

Over 212.5 | $1.95 @ Betandplay

I think 212.5 is too low.

Every regular-season meeting between these two went over that number. Philly’s fatigue could mean sloppier defence rather than less offence. Tyrese Maxey averaged 28.3 points this season and Paul George found his deep ball in the final two games against Boston. If New York get out fast and force Philly to play uptempo, 212 won’t be enough.

I’m backing the over through best new betting sites at $1.95.

Timberwolves +14.5 | $1.90 @ Betista

I wouldn’t tip Minnesota to win this game.

Victor Wembanyama returned from a concussion to record 44 points and 26 rebounds across the final two games of the Portland series, and the Spurs went 62-20 in the regular season for a reason. San Antonio are -1400 to advance.

But 14.5 is an enormous number.

Minnesota knocked out Denver without Edwards or DiVincenzo, and Dosunmu missed the clincher with a calf injury. Jaden McDaniels went for 32 points and 10 rebounds in Game 6. Rudy Gobert limited Nikola Jokic across that series in a way few centres can. Minnesota grind games to a halt, and that translates to tighter margins even in a loss.

Dosunmu could return for Game 1.

Minnesota and San Antonio met three times in the regular season - two of those games were decided by three points or fewer. On legal betting sites I’m taking the Wolves and 14.5 at $1.90.