NBA Expert Tips and Best Bets | April 10

I’ve got three NBA betting tips for Friday’s afternoon slate in NZ. The Knicks and Celtics are scrapping over second seed at the Garden, and Houston look formidable against a Philly team facing back-to-back fatigue. Steph Curry’s return changes the Warriors game entirely given what’s happened to the Lakers.

Knicks +3.5 | $1.90 @ VipLuck

I can’t lay 3.5 at the Garden when the Knicks are at full strength. New York are 51-28, chasing the No. 2 seed, and they beat Atlanta 108-105 on Tuesday with Mitchell Robinson putting up 12 rebounds and three blocks off the bench in 20 minutes. Landry Shamet and Miles McBride are both back from extended absences.

Boston are 54-25 and rolling - four straight wins, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown combining for 58 against Charlotte on Wednesday, and nobody on the injury report for the first time all season. I’m not picking against them outright. But these two teams are close in quality and the Knicks have home court. I’m taking New York and the points on the betting sites NZ I use.

Rockets -8.5 | $1.85 @ Betista

Joel Embiid twisted his ankle against San Antonio on Tuesday. He has a back-to-back coming up - Houston on Thursday night (US time), then Indiana on Friday - and he missed the second leg of a back-to-back just last week for rest. If the ankle is bothering him, there’s a real chance he skips this one entirely to be available for Indiana.

That’s where this bet starts for me. But even if Embiid plays, I still fancy Houston. The Rockets are on a seven-game win streak and Kevin Durant is averaging 26.9 points across his last 10. They came back from 21 down against Phoenix on Wednesday and won 119-105. Alperen Sengun has been averaging 6.9 assists over his last 11 games, which is a ridiculous number for a centre.

Paul George has been sharp since returning from suspension - 24.4 points over his last seven. But Philadelphia are 43-36 and lost to the Spurs by 13 even with Embiid on the floor. I don’t think George alone can live with what Houston are doing right now.

Warriors -4.5 | $2.15 @ Betandplay

The Lakers are a mess and $2.15 on Golden State feels like a gift. Luka Doncic is done for the regular season. Austin Reaves is out at least four weeks. LeBron James missed Wednesday’s 87-123 loss to Oklahoma City with a foot problem. Stephen Curry returned from a 27-game absence on Sunday, scored 29 in 26 minutes against Houston, and looked like himself immediately. I’m seeing $2.15 on new betting sites and I’m all over it.