NBA Odds, Best Bets and Expert Tips | June 11

I’ve got three tips from NBA Finals Game 4 across betting apps in NZ today as the Knicks look to retake control of this series against San Antonio. Their supporting cast may have gone cold in Game 3, but I think that changes at MSG this Thursday.

Knicks -2.5 | $1.90 @ Betandplay

Karl-Anthony Towns scoring 11 points in Game 3 is an outlier, not the norm. He put up 18 and 12 rebounds in Game 1, then 21 and 13 boards in Game 2. Mikal Bridges went from 20 points in Game 2 to just two in Game 3. 

If both come back to form at the same time, this game will be completely different.

Sure, San Antonio’s Game 3 win was impressive. Victor Wembanyama had 32 points on 11-of-18 shooting and Stephon Castle added 23. But the Spurs got to the free throw line 32 times - 24 of those in the second half - and I don’t expect the same to happen again. 

New York are 32-15-1 against the spread at home this season, and I’m backing them to respond on new betting sites.

Under 216.5 | $1.90 @ VipLuck

Two of the first three games in this series went under. The combined totals for Games 1 and 2 were 200 and 209. Game 3 cleared at 226, but that needs some context - San Antonio attempted 32 free throws as touched on above, and a free throw count like that pushes the score up without the pace to match.

I’d expect New York to tighten up defensively after conceding 115 in Game 3. They’ll want to slow this down rather than get into a shootout.

Knicks ML | $1.70 @ Betista

This is my more conservative tip. OG Anunoby has been trending upward all series - 17 points in each of the first two games, then 28 in Game 3 on 9-of-13 shooting. He’s been New York’s most reliable scorer outside of Jalen Brunson, who has 82 points through three Finals games.

De’Aaron Fox is the reason I’m not worried about San Antonio taking this one. He had a nightmare in Game 1 with seven points on 3-of-13 shooting. He bounced back with 20 in Game 2, but fell to 12 on 4-of-14 in Game 3. That lingering ankle from the Western Conference finals is clearly still a factor. When Fox can’t get going, San Antonio’s offence depends almost entirely on Wembanyama, and New York can game-plan around that. 

I like the Knicks on betting bonuses platforms at this price.