NBA Odds, Best Bets and Expert Tips | May 14

I’m tipping three plays on the one game Thursday - Pistons vs Cavaliers Game 5 at Little Caesars Arena - across betting sites NZ punters have available. It’s a series that’s gone entirely to script so far: the home team has won all four games. Detroit are 3.5-point favourites and I’ve got angles on both sides of that line.

Pistons -3.5 | $1.90 @ VipLuck

I don’t love backing a pattern, but this one is hard to argue with. 

The home team has won all four games in this series, and Detroit’s home defensive numbers through six playoff games are ridiculous - opponents are scoring just 99.3 points per game at Little Caesars Arena. 

Cleveland have been a different team on the road. They’re 0-5 away from Rocket Arena in these playoffs, averaging just 99 points per game across Games 1 and 2 in Detroit.

Cade Cunningham has been good without being great. He had 19 and six assists in Game 4 but coughed up five turnovers, a problem that’s followed him all series. 

I’m taking Detroit to cover at home on the best betting apps I use.

Under 211.5 | $1.95 @ Betandplay

Detroit’s home defence is the main reason I’m going under.

Those 99.3 points allowed at Little Caesars Arena aren’t a fluke - the Pistons have been a wall at home all postseason. Games 1 and 2 of this series produced totals of 212 and 204. One scraped over, one came in well under.

Cleveland are capable of shooting the lights out at home - they put up 116 and 112 in Games 3 and 4 - but that offensive ceiling drops on the road.

Cavaliers ML | $2.55 @ Betista

Donovan Mitchell is on a tear. His scoring has climbed with every game in this series, from 23 in Game 1 all the way to 43 in Game 4. That 43 included 39 in the second half - tying Sleepy Floyd’s 1987 playoff record for most points in a half. 

James Harden is dealing with a hand injury but put up 24 points and 11 assists in Game 4. Evan Mobley was two steals short of a 5x5 in Game 4.

I know the road numbers are ugly, and I know I’ve already tipped Detroit above. 

But at $2.55 on the best legal sports betting sites, Cleveland’s star power gives you real value if Mitchell’s current form travels.