NBA Odds, Best Bets and Expert Tips | June 14

I’ve got three NBA Finals tips for Sunday afternoon NZT across the legal betting sites I use. New York came back from 29 down to win Game 4, and I’m backing the Knicks again in San Antonio - both with the points and on the moneyline. The total looks like it should go under too.

Knicks +3.5 | $1.90 @ Betista

The Knicks have already won twice at Frost Bank Center in this series - by 10 in Game 1 and by one in Game 2. They’ve been comfortable in San Antonio in a way I didn’t expect from the road team. 

Thursday’s comeback was historic. The Spurs nailed 14 three-pointers in the first half, an NBA Finals record, and led by 27 at halftime. Yet they still lost. OG Anunoby’s putback tip-in with 1.2 seconds left completed the largest comeback in Finals history.

Victor Wembanyama is on three flagrant foul points now - one more and he’s suspended. I expect that to change how he defends at the rim, and San Antonio can’t afford a less physical version of their franchise player. Jalen Brunson is averaging 29.5 points this series. Anunoby has gone for 28 and 33 in the last two games on 19-of-28 combined shooting. 

I’m going with the Knicks across betting apps in NZ and taking the 3.5.

Under 215.5 | $1.90 @ VipLuck

Three of the four Finals games have finished under 215 combined points. Game 1 was the lowest at 200, and Game 2 wasn’t far off at 209. The exception was Game 3 at 226, inflated by 32 San Antonio free-throw attempts.

This is an elimination game for the Spurs. I’d expect them to grind this one out rather than try to outscore a team that just erased a 29-point deficit. On the new betting sites I’ve been checking, $1.90 for the under 215.5 works for me.

Knicks ML | $2.10 @ Betandplay

I’m not confident the Spurs can protect Frost Bank Center in an elimination game - not after what happened on Thursday. De’Aaron Fox has been fighting an ankle issue since the conference semis. He shot 3-of-13 in Game 1 and only looked right in Game 2 when he went 8-of-12. His 6-of-16 in Game 4 was closer to the norm.

New York have won both their road games in this series and now they’re one win from a championship. $2.10 for the Knicks to clinch it in San Antonio is a price I’ll take.