NBA Odds, Best Bets and Expert Tips | April 15

The play-in tournament tips off on Wednesday NZT, and I’ve got three NBA betting tips across the two opening games. Charlotte are hosting a Miami team they thumped by 30 in March. Phoenix should finally have Devin Booker and Dillon Brooks available together, which changes the shape of the Blazers game big time.

Hornets ML | $1.75 @ VipLuck

I like Charlotte here, and I don’t even think it’ll be close. 

The Hornets beat Miami 136-106 at home in March, and they’ve been the better side all season - 44-38, first in offensive rating since January 1. LaMelo Ball is averaging 20.1 points and 7.2 assists, and Kon Knueppel is right in the Rookie of the Year conversation with 18.6 points per game and a rookie-record 273 threes.

Miami are 43-39 and are pretty banged up. Simone Fontecchio missed the finale with an ankle injury and is working to be cleared. Nikola Jovic is out. Norman Powell has been in and out with a groin issue for the past two weeks. The Heat dropped two straight road games to Toronto in the final week and got outscored by 18 at Boston before that. 

I’m backing Charlotte on the best betting sites in NZ straight up.

Suns -5.5 | $1.90 @ Betandplay

Phoenix are 2-1 against Portland this season, and Booker missed the last two of those meetings. He rested the final two games with the seventh seed locked up and should be available here. 

Brooks is also expected back after recovering from a broken hand, and Jalen Green has been dealing with minor knee soreness but played through it recently. Collin Gillespie scored a career-high 30 in the Suns’ win over Portland on February 3 - he’s been the one constant in the Phoenix backcourt all year, averaging 12.7 points and 4.6 assists.

Portland’s problem is turnovers. They averaged 17.3 per game during the regular season, worst in the league by a wide margin. Jerami Grant is out with a calf injury and has no timetable, and Damian Lillard hasn’t played all season. 

I’m laying the 5.5 on the new betting sites I use.

Over 219.5 | $1.90 @ Betista

I’m doubling up on this game because I think the total is low. 

Phoenix getting their core back together means more transition offence, and Portland aren’t the type to slow things down even when they probably should. The Blazers scored 122 against Sacramento and 116 against the Clippers in their last two regular-season games, and Phoenix put up 135 against Oklahoma City in the finale even with starters resting early.

Portland’s turnover rate feeds the over rather than hurting it. Those 17.3 giveaways per game created fast-break points for opponents all season, and the Suns are exactly the kind of team that will punish loose possessions. 

I’m taking the over on live betting sites at $1.90.