NBA Odds, Best Bets and Expert Tips | April 16

I’m tipping two play-in games on online NBA betting sites this Thursday NZT - a 7-vs-8 battle in Philly where Joel Embiid’s absence reshapes everything, and an elimination game in LA where Stephen Curry’s season is on the line.

Magic +1.5 | $1.90 @ Betista

Joel Embiid had an appendectomy earlier this month and isn’t expected back for the play-in - that’s the headline for this clash. Without him, the 76ers lose their rim protection and their best post scorer, and Orlando’s Paolo Banchero has feasted on that gap before (he dropped 32 on Philly in a game Embiid missed earlier this season).

Orlando were on a five-game winning streak before losing 113-108 to Boston on the final day. Franz Wagner is back from his ankle injury and scored 25 against Chicago on April 10. Banchero finished the regular season with a triple-double against the Celtics, even in the loss. This is not a team lacking confidence going into Philly.

The 76ers are 7-2 in their last nine at home, and Tyrese Maxey can go off on any given night. Paul George is another problem for Orlando to deal with. But I don’t think 1.5 points is enough for a team without their franchise centre. I’m taking the Magic on the new betting sites I’ve been using and expecting Banchero to be the best player on the floor.

Clippers -5 | $1.85 @ VipLuck

The loser here goes home. Golden State are 37-45 and have won once in their last eight games. Curry has been back for four games since his knee injury and is still on a minutes restriction of around 30. He’s shooting 41.7% from deep since returning, but the team around him hasn’t been good enough.

The Clippers won nine of the last 10 against the Warriors. Kawhi Leonard missed the regular-season finale but had been playing through his ankle sprain for weeks and is expected to suit up here. He’s been averaging 27.9 points a game when healthy. Darius Garland has averaged 6.7 assists per game since arriving in the Harden trade and gives the Clippers a proper playmaker alongside Leonard.

I’m not ruling out a Curry explosion - you never can - but the Clippers at home as five-point favourites feels about right.

Under 220.5 | $1.95 @ Betandplay

The regular-season meetings between these two trended low, and I see no reason for that to change in a do-or-die scenario where both teams tighten up defensively.

Golden State rank second in three-pointers attempted per game but 18th in accuracy. Curry’s minutes restriction is another factor - he’s been averaging around 26 minutes since coming back, and the Warriors’ offence without him on the floor has been poor all season. The Clippers allowed the 10th-fewest points per game this year, and if Leonard plays, he’s an All-Defence-level wing who’ll be matched up on Curry for stretches.

The under at $1.95 through betting promotions at Betandplay is where I’m putting my money.