NBA Odds, Best Bets and Expert Tips | May 18

I’ve got three NBA betting tips on Monday’s only game - Cavaliers at Pistons in a Game 7 for a spot in the Eastern Conference Finals. Home team won the first four, road team won the last two. Detroit are 3.5-point favourites at Little Caesars Arena and I’m split enough to play both sides.

Pistons -3.5 | $1.90 @ VipLuck

I’m not sure what to do with the home-court pattern anymore - it held through four games and then collapsed in the last two. But Game 7 is at Little Caesars Arena. Detroit were 60-22 and the East’s top seed, and they haven’t lost at home in these playoffs outside of the Game 5 overtime.

Jalen Duren put up 15 and 11 in Game 6 despite rolling his ankle in the third quarter - he’s not on the injury report for Game 7. Detroit’s bench chipped in 48 points in that win, with Duncan Robinson returning from a back injury to knock down four threes in 20 minutes. Cleveland turned it over 20 times and Donovan Mitchell went six of 20 from the field. 

I’m backing Detroit to cover, with free bets and promotions available across NZ sportsbooks to soften the risk.

Under 205.5 | $1.95 @ Betandplay

Game 7s trend low, and I think both coaching staffs will tighten rotations here. Cleveland shot 39% in Game 6 and turned it over 20 times. Detroit have won five of seven at home in these playoffs, with four of those decided by double digits.

Cavaliers ML | $2.45 @ Betista

I know I just tipped Detroit to cover. This is the hedge, and I think there’s value at $2.45. Cleveland won three straight to go from 0-2 down to 3-2 in this series. They came back from nine down with about two minutes left in Game 5 to win in overtime on the road - that’s a group with serious fight in them.

James Harden had 30 points in that overtime win. Evan Mobley added 19 and eight assists. If Mitchell’s shooting bounces back from his six-of-20 Game 6 - and his series averages suggest it will - Cleveland have the talent to win in Detroit. 

On the best live betting sites in NZ, $2.45 for a team that hasn’t been to the Conference Finals since 2018 is a price I’m willing to take.