NBA Odds, Best Bets and Expert Tips | May 19

I’ve been waiting for this one. Tuesday afternoon NZT tips off the Western Conference Finals, and I’ve got three picks across NZ betting sites for Game 1 between the Thunder and Spurs at Paycom Center. 

OKC are unbeaten through eight playoff games, but San Antonio went 4-1 against them in the regular season – and that’s the number that gives this series some edge.

Thunder -6.5 | $1.90 @ VipLuck

I’m siding with Oklahoma City here despite that 1-4 regular-season record against San Antonio. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander just won his second straight MVP and hasn’t needed to play 40 minutes in a single game this postseason – the Thunder swept Phoenix and then swept the Lakers without dropping a game.

Jalen Williams missed six straight playoff games with a hamstring strain, but he’s signalled he’s healthy and is expected back for this series. Even on a minutes limit, that’s a boost OKC didn’t have against Phoenix or LA. San Antonio just came through a physical six-game grind against Minnesota, and De’Aaron Fox tweaked his ankle in Game 4. He left the floor limping in Game 6 before returning. 

I’m not convinced he’s at full speed, and on the best legal betting sites I’m comfortable laying the 6.5.

Under 219.5 | $1.90 @ Betandplay

San Antonio have been the best defensive team in these playoffs – opponents are shooting just 40.5% against the Spurs, the lowest clip in the league. OKC are right there too – at home this postseason, the Thunder have given up just 97 per game. The under went 4-1 across the five regular-season meetings, and it cashed in all three at Paycom Center.

Victor Wembanyama is averaging 4.2 blocks per game in the playoffs, up from 3.1 in the regular season. His rim protection will force OKC into tougher perimeter looks. Conference finals openers tend to be tight, physical affairs. 

I’m backing the under on betting apps in NZ at $1.90.

Gilgeous-Alexander Over 29.5 Points | $1.85 @ Betista

Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 31.1 points during the regular season, and in four games against San Antonio he put up 29.5 per game on 50.6% shooting. 

Even if Williams returns, he’ll likely be on a minutes restriction – the offence still funnels through SGA. He’s been efficient all postseason without needing heavy minutes, and if this game is close for at least three quarters, he’ll clear this number. 

$1.85 at Betista is where I’m putting it.