NBA Odds, Best Bets and Expert Tips | April 20

Playoff basketball starts Monday NZT and I’ve got three NBA betting tips across two Game 1s. Philadelphia are without Joel Embiid for their trip to Boston, and I’m doubling up on the Spurs-Trail Blazers opener.

Celtics -8.5 | $1.85 @ VipLuck

Philadelphia can compete with a full deck. But they don’t have one. Joel Embiid had emergency appendectomy surgery on April 9. The average NBA return timeline is 23 days, so he’s almost certainly out until at least Game 7. Paul George is back and healthy, but Tyrese Maxey is the only player Boston will lose sleep over.

Boston are 56-26 and won 13 of their last 16 before the playoffs. Jayson Tatum has played himself back into rhythm after missing most of the season with a ruptured Achilles. The Sixers did beat Boston twice this year - both by one or two points - but Tatum missed all four meetings. 

I’m laying the 8.5 at $1.85 on betting sites NZ with both Jays available.

Spurs -7.5 | $1.90 @ Betandplay

Victor Wembanyama says he’s close to regular-season shape but not quite at 100 percent after missing the final week with a rib contusion. That’s Portland’s only crack. San Antonio are 62-20 overall and a brutal 32-8 at home. Wembanyama is on the court for Game 1.

Portland are the seven-seed for a reason. They closed 42-40 and needed a play-in win over Phoenix to get here. Damian Lillard has been out all season recovering from last year’s Achilles tear. Jerami Grant returned for the play-in but shot just 2-of-9. Asking Deni Avdija to handle the scoring load against Wemby’s shot-blocking in his own arena is a tall order. 

$1.90 on the best betting apps is fair for a home Game 1.

Under 215.5 | $2.00 @ Betista

I’m taking a swing on the total alongside the spread. Game 1s tend to be tight and ugly. Wembanyama leads the NBA in blocks at 3.1 per game, and Portland’s halfcourt offence will see the paint shrink quickly.

The Blazers shot 33.4 percent from three this season, 25th in the league. San Antonio’s defensive rating finished inside the top ten. $2.00 for the under is solid value.