NBA Odds, Best Bets and Expert Tips | May 20

I’m tipping three markets from one game for Wednesday NZT - the Eastern Conference Finals opener between the Knicks and Cavaliers at Madison Square Garden. 

New York are coming off nine days’ rest after sweeping Philadelphia, while Cleveland ground through a seven-game series in Detroit, so I’ve found angles across the NZ betting sites I use.

Knicks -7.5 | $1.90 @ VipLuck

I think New York cover comfortably here. OG Anunoby has been a full participant in practice for the past two days and is tracking toward availability for Game 1. His return from a hamstring strain is set to complete a defensive unit that posted the best net rating in the playoffs at plus-20.0 during the Philadelphia sweep.

Cleveland has played 14 games across two rounds - both series went the full seven. Donovan Mitchell dropped 26 in the Game 7 blowout of Detroit on Sunday, but that was roughly 48 hours before tip-off. The Cavaliers are 2-5 on the road this postseason, and the Knicks are 4-1 at home in the playoffs. Home teams went 3-0 in the regular-season series between these two. 

That’s a whole lot of evidence to take New York giving up 7.5 on new betting sites.

Under 216.5 | $1.95 @ Betandplay

Conference Finals openers tend to be cagey and I don’t expect this one to be different. 

Neither team has seen the other in a playoff setting this season, and Cleveland’s quick turnaround from Game 7 is more likely to produce heavy legs than high-scoring transition basketball. The Knicks won their four games against Philadelphia by an average of 22 points, but that came against a team with no defensive answers. 

Cleveland’s interior pairing of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen is a different proposition - I’d expect Tom Thibodeau to lean on his halfcourt defence and grind this one out. 

On the NZ NBA betting sites I use, $1.95 for the under is where I’m putting my money.

Cavaliers ML | $3.15 @ Betista

If you want to hedge, then $3.15 is a lot of value for a team that won their last game by 31 and have Donovan Mitchell playing some of his best playoff basketball.

Cleveland’s problems on the road are real - 2-5 away from home this postseason. But one of those road wins came in Game 7 in Detroit, and Mitchell posted 26 points with zero turnovers on Sunday. The nine-day layoff could work against New York if the Knicks come out cold. 

I wouldn’t tip this on its own, but as a value stab alongside the spread, there’s enough at that price to justify a small play.