NBA Odds, Best Bets and Expert Tips | March 21

Saturday afternoon in New Zealand has a brilliant lineup of basketball for Kiwi fans as usual, with three NBA betting picks in particular jumping out as great value on NZ betting sites today. I’m looking at a comfortable spread and a home-court edge in Houston, plus a riskier Denver play built entirely around one man’s absurd March.

Celtics -9.5 | $1.90 @ Betandplay

Memphis are 24-44 and have lost eight of their last nine. Ja Morant is still out with an elbow injury and Zach Edey is done for the season. Brandon Clarke’s sidelined with a calf problem as well. I just don’t see where any resistance comes from in this match.

Boston won the last meeting 131-95 in November and are 18-2 against Memphis in their last 20. Jayson Tatum dropped 24 on Golden State earlier this week and looks sharp since returning. Nikola Vucevic remains out with a broken finger, which limits their big-man rotation, but it hasn’t slowed them down. I’m laying the 9.5 here.

Rockets -5.5 | $1.85 @ VipLuck

Kevin Durant put up 31 the last time Houston faced Atlanta - a 104-86 win in January. The Hawks couldn’t get near him. CJ McCollum had 23 for Atlanta that night and it still wasn’t close.

Atlanta are on a three-game road winning streak, which is worth noting. But Houston are 23-10 at home. Alperen Sengun is pulling down 5.9 defensive rebounds a game and running the offence beautifully - 20.2 points, 8.9 boards, 6.1 assists on the season. Durant’s at 25.8 points per game. Fred VanVleet hasn’t played all season after tearing his ACL in September, but I’d argue the Rockets have found their rhythm without him. 

I like the $1.85 on NBA betting sites for a six-point cover at Toyota Center.

Nuggets -3.5 | $2.15 @ Betista

Nikola Jokic is averaging a triple-double in March - 26.3 points, 12.8 rebounds, 10.7 assists across 10 games. Five triple-doubles this month. He had 29, 14 and nine against Memphis on Wednesday.

Toronto are a good side at 39-29. Scottie Barnes and Brandon Ingram give them scoring from different spots, with Immanuel Quickley running the point. They thumped Chicago 139-109 last time out. Denver won the first meeting 106-103 in Toronto.

I’m siding with Denver at $2.15 on the NZ betting apps I use. The altitude at Ball Arena hurts visiting teams, and Toronto are midway through a long Western road swing - Phoenix, Utah and the Clippers all follow. Admittedly, this is the riskiest tip of my three today.