NBA Odds, Best Bets and Expert Tips | May 21

I’m tipping two plays on betting sites in NZ for Thursday’s Western Conference Finals Game 2 between San Antonio and Oklahoma City. The Spurs shocked the defending champs in double overtime on Monday, and there’s optimism Fox will be available for Game 2, which only tilts the value further toward San Antonio.

Spurs +6.5 | $1.90 @ VipLuck

I don’t think 6.5 is enough for Oklahoma City to cover here. 

San Antonio went into Paycom Center without De’Aaron Fox on Monday and won in double overtime. Victor Wembanyama put up 41 points and 24 rebounds - only Wilt Chamberlain had posted a 40-20 game in a conference finals debut before that. Dylan Harper filled Fox’s spot and came up with 24 points and seven steals. The Spurs turned the ball over 23 times and still came out on top.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander shot 7-of-23, and the reigning MVP isn’t going to have two games like that in a row. I’d expect OKC to be sharper. But there’s optimism Fox will be available for Game 2, and that only strengthens San Antonio’s guard rotation against a defence that couldn’t stop them even without him. 

The Spurs went 45-35-2 against the spread this season and were 13-6 straight up as moneyline underdogs. I’m taking the points on new betting sites.

Over 218.5 | $1.95 @ Betandplay

Fox’s likely return is the main reason I like this over. 

He averaged 18.8 points per game across the first two rounds, and adding that kind of scoring to a team that already put up 122 without him should push the total. Wembanyama scored 26 of his 41 points inside the arc on Monday, and OKC had no answer for him in the paint - San Antonio outscored the Thunder 52-38 in that area.

OKC’s offence has room to improve too. 

They shot 40.6% as a team in Game 1, well off their season standard, and Gilgeous-Alexander’s 7-of-23 night dragged that down. If he’s closer to his usual efficiency, the Thunder’s end of the scoreboard goes up without San Antonio’s coming down. 

I’m backing the over on betting apps NZ platforms at $1.95.