NBA Odds, Best Bets and Expert Tips | May 23

I’ve got three Saturday NBA tips across NZ betting sites for the only game on the slate. The Western Conference Finals are locked at 1-1 and the series shifts to San Antonio for the first time.

Spurs ML | $1.85 @ Betista

I like the Spurs to win Game 3 outright. San Antonio went 4-1 against OKC in the regular season and stole Game 1 in Oklahoma City 122-115 in double overtime despite De’Aaron Fox sitting out with a right high ankle sprain.

Victor Wembanyama has been other-worldly. He put up 41 and 24 in Game 1 and followed it with 21 and 17 in a Game 2 loss. Dylan Harper has stepped into the starting spot with Fox out and produced - 24 points and seven steals in Game 1. If Fox returns for Game 3, the Spurs get even more dangerous. If he doesn’t, they’ve already proven they can cope.

Under 219.5 | $1.95 @ VipLuck

Game 1 finished 237 combined points, but it took two overtimes to get there. Through four quarters the teams were level at 101-101. Game 2 was 235 in regulation - OKC shot 47.9% from the field and grabbed 17 offensive rebounds, both numbers that are unlikely to repeat with Wembanyama protecting his home rim.

San Antonio ranked third in defensive rating this season. OKC ranked first. When the Spurs control the tempo at home through Wembanyama in the post, the pace slows. I’m taking the under, and online NBA betting markets seem to agree - the total is already sitting lower than those first two scorelines would suggest.

Wembanyama Over 27.5 points | $1.80 @ Betandplay

I’m convinced Wembanyama goes big in Game 3. He averaged 25 points per game during the regular season and he’s been better in the playoffs - 41 in Game 1, 21 in Game 2. The Game 2 dip came after 49 minutes of double overtime two nights earlier. With a full break between games and a home crowd fuelling him, the DPOY has every reason to attack.

OKC doesn’t have a clean answer for him. Chet Holmgren had eight points and eight rebounds in Game 1. Isaiah Hartenstein fouled him repeatedly. Wembanyama got to the line 13 times in Game 1 and converted 12, and I expect equal aggression at Frost Bank. The betting bonuses floating around for the conference finals give you cover at $1.80.