NBA Odds, Best Bets and Expert Tips | May 26

I’ve got three picks for anyone looking to bet on NBA in NZ this Tuesday. It’s a one-game slate - the Cavaliers’ elimination showdown with New York at Rocket Arena. Cleveland are 3-0 down and history says they’re done, but the line is razor-thin for a team supposedly about to get swept.

Cavaliers +2.5 | $1.90 @ VipLuck

I don’t think Cleveland win this series. No team in NBA history has come back from 3-0 and I’m not about to predict the Cavaliers are the first. But Game 4 at Rocket Arena is a different story to the three they’ve just dropped.

The Cavs were up 22 in the third quarter of Game 1 before collapsing in the fourth and losing in overtime. They’ve been competitive throughout - Donovan Mitchell has averaged 26 across the three games, and Evan Mobley put up 24 on 10-of-18 shooting in Game 3. Cleveland aren’t getting outclassed. They’re getting outfinished.

At home, facing the broom, with 2.5 points in hand? I’m taking the Cavs to cover.

Under 217.5 | $1.95 @ Betandplay

Cleveland’s free throw shooting has been terrible in this series - 67.6% across three games, including a 12-of-19 night in Game 3. That alone is costing them five or six points a game.

If the Cavs tighten defensively in an elimination spot - and they should, because desperation usually produces effort on that end - the scoring environment compresses. New York’s offence has been efficient but controlled. 

I reckon the total is inflated by the Game 1 overtime number, and if you can find free bets for this one, the under at $1.95 is where I’d put them.

Cavaliers ML | $2.10 @ Betista

$2.10 for a home team in the Conference Finals feels generous, even one facing a sweep. The spread is only 2.5 - the market is telling you this game is close to a coin flip. If you believe the Cavs can cover, and I do, then the moneyline at plus money is where the real value is.

Jalen Brunson has scored 38 and 30 in Games 1 and 3. Mikal Bridges is shooting over 70% from the field in this series. New York’s form is undeniable. But Cleveland were a 52-win team who went to seven games twice just to get here, and the best live sports betting sites are pricing this as though the Knicks could sleepwalk to a sweep. Don’t think so.