NBA Odds, Best Bets and Expert Tips | May 27

I’ve got three tips on sports betting sites for Wednesday’s Western Conference Finals Game 5 between the Thunder and Spurs. The series is locked at 2-2 after San Antonio stomped OKC 103-82 in Game 4, and now the action swings back to Paycom Center where Oklahoma City went 34-7 in the regular season.

Thunder -5.5 | $1.90 @ Betista

I’m not reading too much into Game 4. 

OKC shot 33% from the field and 18.2% from three - that’s an outlier, not a trend. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander went 6-for-15 and the whole offence stalled, but the Thunder won Games 2 and 3 comfortably before that collapse. They’re a different side at Paycom Center, where their 34-7 regular season record was the best in the league.

Jalen Williams is day-to-day with his hamstring and has missed the last two games. Even without him, OKC’s bench depth is a real weapon - they put up 76 points in the Game 3 win. San Antonio’s backup minutes with Luke Kornet have been a problem all series. 

I’m backing the Thunder to respond here on the best legal betting sites at $1.90.

Over 215.5 | $1.85 @ VipLuck

Game 4’s 185-point combined score is the outlier, not the new normal. Games 2 and 3 both finished above 230, and Game 1 needed double overtime partly because neither side could separate. OKC shot 33% from the field on Sunday. I don’t see that happening again at Paycom Center.

The total at 215.5 on NZ betting apps is a low bar given how the rest of this series has played out. I’m going over at $1.85.

Victor Wembanyama hasn’t scored fewer than 21 points in this series. He went for 41 in Game 1 (double overtime, to be fair) and 33 on Sunday, with 21 and 26 in the two games between those. He’s shot 50% or better from the field in all four games.

OKC don’t have a clear one-on-one answer for him. Chet Holmgren is the closest thing, but Wembanyama has been too versatile - scoring at the rim and from three, getting to the free throw line at will. 

At $2.10 I’ll take him to clear 25.5 again.