NBA Odds, Best Bets and Expert Tips | April 28

I’m tipping three first-round NBA playoff games on NZ betting sites this Tuesday, and one injury towers over everything else. Anthony Edwards suffered a bone bruise and hyperextension in his left knee during Game 4 - no ligament damage, but he’s out for multiple weeks. That reshapes the Denver-Minnesota series entirely, and it’s not the only injury moving these lines.

Magic -1.5 | $1.90 @ VipLuck

I think Orlando are about to close this out. They’ve won two of three in this series and Detroit’s biggest problem is Cade Cunningham’s turnovers - nine of them in the Game 3 loss. He had 27 points and nine assists in that game, but he’s coughing up possessions at a rate that’s costing them.

Banchero’s 25 points and 12 rebounds in Game 3 were complemented by Desmond Bane going 7/9 from three, and Wendell Carter Jr. pulled down 17 rebounds with eight on the offensive glass. Orlando are at home and they’ve figured out how to exploit Detroit’s switches. The Pistons finished 60-22 in the regular season, but they’ve looked rattled on the road in this series.

Thunder -12.5 | $1.85 @ Betandplay

This feels generous even at 12.5. OKC are up 3-0 and have won all three by double digits. Dillon Brooks scored 33 in Game 3 and Jalen Green added 26, and Phoenix still lost by 12. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander put up 42 points in that one on 15/18 shooting - he’s almost impossible to guard right now.

The Thunder are missing Jalen Williams to a hamstring strain, but it hasn’t slowed them down. Grayson Allen has been available since Game 2 but barely involved - he finally got 16 minutes in Game 3 and went 2/8 for seven points. Mark Williams (foot) is still out. OKC went 64-18 in the regular season and they’re playing like it. I can’t find a reason to back Phoenix on NBA betting sites in NZ in what should be a closeout game.

Nuggets -3.5 | $1.95 @ Betista

Ayo Dosunmu scored 43 points on 13/17 shooting to drag Minnesota over the line in Game 4. It was the performance of a lifetime - and Minnesota now need to replicate it without their two best perimeter players. Edwards is gone for weeks, and Donte DiVincenzo ruptured his Achilles in the same game. He’s done for the season.

Minnesota lead this series 3-1 and can afford to drop one. Denver can’t. Nikola Jokic went 8/22 in Game 4 and still finished with 24 points and 15 rebounds. Jamal Murray had 30. Denver are back at altitude for an elimination game, and I’d be amazed if Jokic and Murray don’t come out swinging.

I’m tipping the Nuggets on the best betting apps to cover 3.5.