NBA Odds, Best Bets and Expert Tips | April 29

I’ve got three first-round playoff NBA betting tips for Wednesday morning NZT, with two closeout chances and a tied series to settle. Boston are up 3-1 even after Joel Embiid returned for Game 4, and the Knicks are home off a 16-point road win that flipped this series.

Celtics -7.5 | $1.90 @ Betista

I’m laying the points with Boston at home. Joel Embiid returned in Game 4 less than three weeks after his April 9 appendectomy, and Philly still got blown out 128-96. He went 9-of-21 for 26 points in 34 minutes - decent counting stats, but the Celtics never trailed by fewer than 14 from the second quarter onwards.

Payton Pritchard dropped 32 off the bench in that one and Jayson Tatum added 30. The Celtics are 32-0 all-time when leading a playoff series 3-1, and they’re back at TD Garden. A hobbled Embiid won’t tilt this on his own. 

On the best betting sites NZ punters trust, $1.90 on Boston is the standard line.

Knicks -3.5 | $1.85 @ VipLuck

Karl-Anthony Towns put up a 20-10-10 triple-double in Game 4, and OG Anunoby added 22 points and 10 boards as the Knicks won 114-98 in Atlanta. The series is 2-2, but Game 4 was the most complete the Knicks have looked - they led by 24 at one point.

I expect Mike Brown’s group to handle business at MSG. Jalen Brunson has been the offensive engine all series despite a quiet Game 4 (19 points on 7-of-18). Towns is the bigger story - Atlanta have no answer for him on switches. CJ McCollum scored 17 in that one but coughed it up four times. 

If you’re shopping betting promotions for boosted spreads, $1.85 on the Knicks at home is fair value.

Spurs -8.5 | $2.00 @ Betandplay

San Antonio are 3-1 and finishing this in five. Victor Wembanyama returned from concussion protocol in Game 4 and put up 27 points with seven blocks in a 114-93 demolition in Portland. He grabbed 11 rebounds too and didn’t look rusty for a second.

De’Aaron Fox added 28 on 65% shooting and the Spurs erased a 17-point halftime deficit to win going away. Portland are still recovering from a Damian Lillard-less season and Deni Avdija has been their best player by a margin all year. He had 26 in Game 4 but fouled out late after coughing it up five times.