NBA Odds, Best Bets and Expert Tips | May 29

I’m going all in on San Antonio for Friday’s NBA betting NZ action. The Spurs face elimination at home against the Thunder in Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals, and Victor Wembanyama’s 4-for-15 shooting night in Game 5 has my attention for all the right reasons.

Spurs -3.5 | $1.90 @ Betandplay

I like San Antonio to cover at home. 

The Thunder won Game 5 by 13, but that scoreline flatters them - OKC went 14-for-32 from three and shot nearly 87 per cent from the line, the sort of night that doesn’t repeat on the road. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s 32 points came with 16 of them from the foul line.

The Spurs have to win at Frost Bank Center or go home. They did it in Game 4, holding OKC to 82 points and 33 per cent shooting. I’d expect Wembanyama to be far more aggressive after coach Mitch Johnson publicly called for more than 15 field goal attempts.

On the best betting sites I’ve been using, $1.90 for a desperate home team is good value.

Over 215.5 | $1.95 @ VipLuck

Game 1 went to double overtime so I’m setting that aside. 

Of the three regulation games since, two cleared 215 comfortably - Game 2 at 235 combined and Game 3 at 231. Game 4’s combined 185 was the exception, when OKC shot 33 per cent from the floor and managed just six threes.

Game 5 produced 241 combined points and the two teams attempted 70 free throws between them. OKC’s bench has been productive all series - Alex Caruso dropped 22 in Game 5 and Jared McCain added 20 in his first playoff start. 

If Wembanyama bounces back, the Spurs’ offensive end goes up too.

Spurs ML | $1.65 @ Betista

I don’t trust OKC’s shooting to hold up on the road. 

De’Aaron Fox managed just nine points in Game 5, but he was a different player in Game 4’s blowout win with 12 points and 10 rebounds. The Thunder are still without Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell, and their role players shot 43.8 per cent from three in Game 5 - I don’t see that repeating in an elimination setting at Frost Bank Center. 

At $1.65 on betting promotions pages across NZ sites, the moneyline is where I’d go if you’re only having one bet.