NBA Odds, Best Bets and Expert Tips | May 31

I’ve got three tips from Sunday’s NBA Game 7 on betting apps in NZ, where the Thunder host the Spurs with a Finals berth on the line. The series has been a home-court demolition derby and I’m looking to exploit that.

Thunder -4.5 | $1.95 @ Betista

I’m comfortable giving up 4.5 at the Paycom Center. 

OKC have dropped one home game in these entire playoffs – Game 1 of this series, which needed double overtime and a 41-point Victor Wembanyama performance to get away from them. In the two regulation home games since, OKC won by nine and 13.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a nightmare in San Antonio on Friday (15 points on 6-for-18 shooting). He’s averaged 27.7 points across three career Game 7s, and I’d be surprised if he doesn’t respond on his own floor. 

Jalen Williams is the wildcard. He played Game 6 but scored one point on a hamstring that’s troubled him four separate times this season. OKC’s bench has covered for him throughout these playoffs – Alex Caruso scored 22 in Game 5.

Over 211.5 | $1.90 @ VipLuck

211.5 feels too low for a game at the Paycom Center. 

Both regulation games there this series cleared it comfortably – Game 2 finished at 235 combined and Game 5 went to 241. The two games that came in under 211 were both in San Antonio.

The total opened at 213.5 and has drifted down, which I think is an overreaction to Friday’s lower-scoring Game 6. OKC’s floor has produced offence all series. I’m taking the over on legal betting sites offering this line.

Spurs ML | $2.30 @ Betandplay

My main play is the Thunder spread. 

But at $2.30, the Spurs’ case deserves a look. Victor Wembanyama put up 28 and 10 in Friday’s 27-point blowout. Stephon Castle had 17 points and nine assists while Dylan Harper contributed 18 off the bench. San Antonio are fully healthy. OKC are managing Williams’ hamstring and don’t have Ajay Mitchell at all.

The Spurs are 5-3 on the road this postseason and have won two of the last three games by a combined 48 points. If you’re looking at new betting sites for a value punt, $2.30 on a team playing like this isn’t outrageous.