UEFA Champions League: Arsenal vs Bayer Leverkusen – Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Leverkusen held Arsenal to a 1-1 draw in Germany last week but it was a result that flattered the hosts. Arsenal’s xG of 1.65 dwarfed Leverkusen’s 0.88, Martinelli hit the crossbar, and the Gunners only trailed because they switched off from the second-half kick-off. Only Havertz’s late penalty means the tie is level heading to the Emirates.

Can Leverkusen do something here? They held nine-man Bayern to a draw at the weekend and Hjulmand liked what he saw. But the quality gap is significant and football betting sites have Arsenal as heavy favourites for good reason.

Arsenal

Eight from eight in the Champions League league phase. 10 points clear in the Premier League. Still alive in both domestic cups. Saturday’s 2-0 over Everton didn’t exactly scream dominance though – it took 89 minutes, a Gyokeres tap-in off a scramble and then Max Dowman sprinting 75 yards into an empty net. The kid is 16. Arteta nearly lost his mind on the touchline.

The first leg was a similar grind. Hit the bar through Martinelli, couldn’t finish Leverkusen off until Havertz buried a penalty in the 89th minute. There’s a pattern forming.

One complication is the Carabao Cup final against City next Sunday. Timber picked up a knock against Everton and looked sore before half-time. Odegaard is still out. Trossard hasn’t featured in two weeks. Madueke – who won the first-leg penalty and looked sharp off the bench Saturday – seems the most likely beneficiary if Arteta shuffles things.

Team News: Odegaard (knee) and Merino (foot) out. Timber (knock) and Trossard (knock) doubts. Madueke is pushing for a start after his first-leg impact.

Predicted Lineup: Raya; Calafiori, Gabriel, Saliba, Timber; Rice, Zubimendi; Martinelli, Saka, Madueke; Gyokeres.

Bayer Leverkusen

Fourteen new players out of 25 this season. Wirtz gone to Liverpool, Hincapie to Arsenal, Xabi Alonso to Real Madrid. That’s a rebuild by anyone’s standards and sixth in the Bundesliga reflects it. 

Still, they’ve scrapped into the last 16, gave Arsenal a genuine scare in the first leg, and held nine-man Bayern to a draw on Saturday. Garcia gave them an early lead in that one and Schick looked sharp after returning from a muscle problem. They’re not rolling over for anyone.

The issue is output. 0.88 xG from 10 shots in the first leg. Hjulmand keeps saying he wants better finishing. Kofane is electric on the counter but the creative supply behind him is inconsistent, and with Flekken, Arthur, Bade and Vazquez all still missing, the squad depth just isn’t there for a tie like this.

Team News: Flekken (knee), Arthur (ligament), Bade (hamstring), Vazquez (calf) and Ben Seghir (calf) out. Schick fit. Maza and Tillman available.

Predicted Lineup: Blaswich; Tapsoba, Andrich, Quansah; Poku, Garcia, Fernandez, Grimaldo; Maza, Terrier; Kofane.

• Arsenal won all eight Champions League league phase matches this season, scoring 23 and conceding four.
• Arsenal haven’t lost in Europe since last season’s semi-final.
• Leverkusen have never progressed from the Champions League last 16 in six previous attempts.
• Leverkusen have won just one of their last six in all competitions.
• In the first leg, Arsenal’s xG of 1.65 dwarfed Leverkusen’s 0.88.
• Havertz has scored all four of his European penalties, including one at the BayArena for Leverkusen against Porto in 2020.

Arsenal win. That’s where I land. The first leg showed the gap even on a night where the Gunners weren’t at their best, and I’d expect the Emirates to lift them a level or two. 

Leverkusen can nick something on the break through Kofane, or maybe from a Grimaldo set piece – Andrich’s header in the first leg proved they’re a threat from corners. But Arsenal’s bench won them the game on Saturday and rescued a point in Germany. That depth is hard to fight against over 90 minutes.

Arteta will be wary of going full throttle with Wembley on the horizon, but he also knows a convincing win here puts the tie to bed. I’d expect him to start strong and try to kill the game early. Leverkusen don’t have the firepower to chase a deficit at this level.

$1.40 for the win isn’t a price that moves me. The first leg only produced two goals so I’m wary of going big on the overs. Arsenal 2-0 feels right.

Arsenal to Win and Over 1.5 Goals @ $1.55

Arsenal to win and over 1.5 goals looks the safest way in. I’d be surprised if they don’t score twice given Leverkusen’s defensive absences and the fact Arteta’s men will want this wrapped up before the Carabao Cup final.

For something with more juice, Madueke to score or assist at around $2.80 is worth a look – he changed the first leg when he came on and could start this time. NZ betting apps have plenty of options and there are solid free bets around if you’re looking to have a crack at it.