Carabao Cup Final: Arsenal vs Manchester City - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Arsenal and Manchester City meet at Wembley Stadium on Monday morning New Zealand time in the 2026 Carabao Cup final - the first time the Premier League’s top two have faced off in a League Cup final.

Nine points separate them in the league. City got knocked out of the Champions League by Real Madrid four days ago. In this Arsenal vs Manchester City preview, I dig into both sides’ form and where I think the value sits. Spoiler alert: I’ve landed on a goals market play at a price I like on NZ betting sites.

Arsenal

I’ve been trying to talk myself out of Arsenal here, but I just can’t do it. They beat Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 on Tuesday to reach the Champions League quarter-finals, with Eze and Rice both scoring from outside the box. Before that, a 2-0 over Everton extended their lead at the top.

They’re at 21 wins from 31 league games with 61 scored, and just 22 conceded. Eze has four goals in his last seven. Rice scored a screamer from 20+ yards on Tuesday and I reckon he’s been Arsenal’s most important player this season.

My concern here is their legs. Three matches in eight days is a lot, even for a squad this deep. Arteta rotated in midweek, though, bringing Gyokeres and Ben White into the starting side.

Team News: Odegaard and Timber are doubts after missing the Leverkusen match, while Eze took a knock but says he’s fit. Merino is out for the season. 

Predicted Lineup: Kepa; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Hincapie; Rice, Zubimendi; Saka, Eze, Trossard; Gyokeres.

Manchester City

It’s been a rough few days for City. A 5-1 aggregate loss to Real Madrid in the Champions League, with Bernardo Silva sent off in the second leg, plus Haaland has been stuck on three goals from his last 12 league games. Before that, a 1-1 draw at West Ham - 24 shots, one point.

I’m not writing them off, though. I can’t, really. Guardiola in a cup final hits different. It’s easy to forget that City smashed Newcastle 5-1 on aggregate in the semis and won every Carabao Cup tie this season by two or more goals. 

Team News: Gvardiol and Guehi both unavailable. Kovacic is back in training but uncertain. Haaland is fit, while Khusanov partners Dias at centre-back. Guardiola serves a domestic touchline ban but can attend.

Predicted Lineup: Trafford; Nunes, Dias, Khusanov, Ait-Nouri; Rodri, Bernardo; Cherki, Foden, Marmoush; Haaland.

• Arsenal are unbeaten in six straight meetings with City across all competitions, winning two and drawing four.
• City have won five straight League Cup matches against Arsenal, including a 3-0 victory in the 2018 final.
• This season’s only fixture ended 1-1 at the Emirates, with Gabriel Martinelli equalising in stoppage time.
• Arsenal have the best defensive record in the Premier League: 19 goals conceded from 31 games.
• City have scored in every Carabao Cup match this season, winning each by a margin of two goals or more.

Arsenal are the better side right now, there’s no denying that. They’ve just knocked out Leverkusen, and have got more to play for too. I’m backing them to win.

Rice and Zubimendi should control the midfield. Rodri is still feeling his way back from the ACL and he’s not the same player who anchored City’s treble-winning side - not yet. Arsenal’s press caused City all sorts of problems in that 5-1 at the Emirates last year, and I expect similar issues here.

Khusanov and Dias at the back is what worries me for City. They haven’t played much together, and Gyokeres running in behind off the shoulder is trouble. Saka against Ait-Nouri could be one-way traffic.

But here’s my hesitation: Guardiola has never lost a League Cup final. And Haaland has scored in his last three against Arsenal - even when everyone around him has misfired. 

I don’t see a clean sheet for either side. For anyone checking betting apps NZ for this one, the goals line is where I’m looking.

Over 2.5 Goals @ $1.72

Three of the last four meetings between these two produced goals for both sides. Arsenal’s corner threat is relentless - 16 goals from set pieces this season - and Khusanov defending those deliveries is a mismatch. Haaland and Marmoush have the pace to punish Arsenal when Arteta’s full-backs push high.

Football betting sites are paying $1.72 for over 2.5 goals, which I’m happy to take as I’d be surprised if this stays under three.