Premier League: Chelsea vs Everton - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Everton head to Stamford Bridge this Sunday morning NZT with history well and truly against them. The last time the visitors won at Chelsea’s home ground was 1994: Glenn Hoddle was still managing Chelsea, and the first episode of Friends had just aired.

Thirty years and 27 visits later, the Toffees are still waiting, and nothing about this squad suggests they’re about to turn the tides of history. David Moyes might set up to frustrate, but Chelsea have the firepower to break down most defences at home.

Below I’ve got team news, injury updates, and head-to-head stats from NZ betting sites. Taking all of this into account, there’s a $2.40 bet that I like heading into this clash.

Chelsea

December hasn’t been kind to Chelsea. A 0-0 draw with Bournemouth, a 3-1 loss at Leeds, and a 2-1 defeat against Atalanta this week. Three games without a win, four goals conceded, and some questions starting to surface about Manager Enzo Maresca’s squad depth.

The Leeds result stung most. Chelsea dominated possession but couldn’t handle the physicality, and Dominic Calvert-Lewin — a player they let go — came back to haunt them. Admittedly, the Atalanta loss wasn’t as bad, given how heavily rotated the team was.

To make matters worse, Liam Delap limped off against Bournemouth with a suspected dislocated shoulder. That’s another setback for a striker who’s barely featured this season — six starts, one goal, and hamstring problems earlier in the campaign. Maresca will have to look elsewhere for goals.

Cole Palmer’s the obvious option. Only one league goal in five appearances, which sounds bad until you see he’s still firing off four shots a game. Quieter than last season, sure, but still dangerous when he gets space to operate.

Chelsea have banged in 25 league goals this season, the fourth best in the division. Top betting apps have them as heavy favourites and it’s hard to argue with that assessment, given their home form has been solid even if recent results haven’t.

Team News: Caicedo suspended. Delap, Lavia, Colwill injured.

Predicted Lineup: Sanchez; James, Fofana, Badiashile, Cucurella; Fernandez, Casadei; Madueke, Palmer, Sancho; Neto.

Everton

Seventh place and 21 points sounds decent enough for Everton. But fifteen goals in 14 games does not. That’s barely one a match. Though manager David Moyes has tightened things up at the back since returning, but their attack is painful to watch.

Iliman Ndiaye leads the scoring charts with a measly four league goals. He’s nursing an injury too, which doesn’t help matters. Jack Grealish has chipped in with four assists since his loan move from Manchester City, so there’s at least some creativity in the side. Beto up front has been useless though — isolated constantly, no service, and no confidence in front of goal.

Everton’s away form is grim. They have just one win all season on the road, and now they’re heading somewhere they haven’t won in three decades. Moyes will park the bus and hope for a break on the counter. I wouldn’t bet on it working.

Team News: Branthwaite still out after surgery. Coleman and Patterson missing.

Predicted Lineup: Pickford; Young, Tarkowski, Keane, Mykolenko; Gueye, Garner; Grealish, Ndiaye, McNeil; Beto.

• Last three head-to-heads finished under 2.5 goals.
• At least one team has been blanked in four of the last five meetings.
• Everton average 0.7 away goals this season. Chelsea average 1.8 at home.

Despite their December form, I’m picking this to be a Chelsea win, comfortably.

Everton don’t score enough to trouble good sides away from home, and they’ve got a mental block at Stamford Bridge that goes back decades. Recent meetings have been tight, but that’s because Moyes sets up to survive rather than compete. Surviving isn’t winning.

Ndiaye might produce something - he’s got the talent for a moment of individual brilliance. But Beto won’t help him, Grealish blows hot and cold, and the rest of the squad lacks ideas in the final third. One goal probably won’t be enough if Chelsea show up with any intent.

Chelsea’s defence has been solid at home this season. In particular, Wesley Fofana’s been excellent at the back — 64% aerial duel success, 1.8 interceptions per game. Everton have blanked at Stamford Bridge in two of their last three visits.

Chelsea to Win to Nil @ $2.40

Everton have scored 15 league goals all season. On the road, they’re averaging under one per game, and their away xG is among the worst in the division.

Beto gets no service. Ndiaye’s carrying a knock. The creativity simply isn’t there to break down a decent defence.

Chelsea have conceded 15 in 14 overall, but they’re tighter at home. Losing Caicedo is a blow to the midfield, but Fofana anchors the backline well enough to cope. Four of the last five meetings had a clean sheet, and the most recent clash finished 5-0.

$2.40 for Chelsea to win without conceding – this is one of my top football betting tips for the week.