UEFA Champions League: Chelsea vs Paris Saint-Germain – Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

I’m not sure there’s much to say about this one. PSG put five past Chelsea in Paris last week and while the Blues grabbed two away goals, the 5-2 scoreline leaves Rosenior’s side needing to win by three clear goals just to force extra time. They’ve hardly been keeping clean sheets, so good luck with that.

The first leg was wild. Barcola and Dembele twice put PSG ahead, Gusto and Fernandez twice equalised, and then it fell apart. Jorgensen’s awful pass was intercepted by Barcola, Kvaratskhelia squared it, and Vitinha chipped the stranded keeper for the third. Then Kvaratskhelia came off the bench to score two stunners in the final 10 minutes. Football betting sites have PSG as comfortable favourites to progress and it’s hard to argue.

Chelsea

Saturday’s 0-1 home defeat to Newcastle made it two losses in four days. They had 67% possession against the Magpies, created next to nothing with it, and got picked off on the counter. Gordon’s 18th-minute goal was embarrassingly easy. I don’t fancy their chances of turning this around when they can’t even beat a mid-table Newcastle at home.

Jorgensen was dropped after Paris – officially a groin injury, though make of that what you will – and Sanchez returned against Newcastle. Palmer has been finding his rhythm since Rosenior arrived but Estevao and Gittens are both out with hamstring problems. Neto was charged by UEFA for pushing a ballboy in the first leg. It’s been that kind of week and I struggle to see where the belief comes from heading into Tuesday.

Team News: Estevao (hamstring), Gittens (hamstring) and Colwill (ACL) out. Jorgensen dropped. Sanchez starts in goal. Neto is facing a one-match UEFA ban for the ballboy incident — decision pending.

Predicted Lineup: Sanchez; Gusto, Fofana, Chalobah, Cucurella; James, Caicedo; Palmer, Fernandez, Neto; Pedro.

Paris Saint-Germain

PSG had the luxury of a free weekend – their Ligue 1 fixture against Nantes was postponed – so they arrive in London fresh. Luis Enrique’s side lead Ligue 1 by a point from Lens with a game in hand, but I’d say their European form has been more convincing since the knockout rounds began. Five goals in Paris and they barely needed to get out of second gear for the first 70 minutes.

Dembele scored a sensational solo goal in the first leg – beat Cucurella and Fofana like they weren’t there – and looks fit again after his calf issues. Kvaratskhelia’s double off the bench was devastating. Fabian Ruiz remains the only significant absence. With a three-goal cushion, Enrique may rotate slightly but the attacking talent is absurd – Barcola, Doue, Dembele, Kvaratskhelia and Vitinha all contributed in Paris.

Team News: Ruiz (knee) and Ndjantou (hamstring) out. Mendy suspended. Dembele fit. Neves available.

Predicted Lineup: Safonov; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Pacho, Beraldo; Neves, Vitinha, Zaire-Emery; Doue, Dembele, Kvaratskhelia.

• PSG have won their last three knockout round ties against Premier League sides.
• Chelsea finished sixth in the league phase with five wins from eight. PSG scraped through in 11th and needed a playoff to get here.
• Chelsea have lost two of their last three matches and haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last five.
• PSG scored five from just nine shots in the first leg.
• Kvaratskhelia has three goals in his last two Champions League appearances.

Chelsea will throw everything at this because they’ve got nothing to lose, and Stamford Bridge under the lights for a European knockout game tends to produce atmosphere. But three unanswered goals to force extra time? Against Enrique’s side? They’ll sit in a mid-block and pick Chelsea off on the break, same as they did in the first leg.

I can see Chelsea winning on the night. Rosenior will go aggressive, Palmer and Pedro will get chances, and PSG won’t be desperate to push forward. Something like Chelsea 2-1 PSG. The tie’s done though.

Both Teams to Score @ $1.50

Chelsea will score at home. Too much attacking quality not to, and PSG won’t shut up shop completely with a three-goal cushion. Dembele and Kvaratskhelia will get their chances on the counter. I’ll go with BTTS at $1.50 – it’s not a huge price but I think it’s the right play in a game where both sides have reasons to attack. You can find this across most best betting apps and there are decent free bets around for new sign-ups.