FA Cup: Chelsea vs Port Vale - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Chelsea face Port Vale at Stamford Bridge on Sunday morning New Zealand time in an FA Cup quarter-final that pits the Club World Cup champions against the lowest-ranked side left in the competition. There’s a Kiwi twist to this one too - All White Ben Waine has scored the winner in Port Vale’s last three rounds, so he’ll have half of New Zealand watching at 4:15am. 

In this Chelsea vs Port Vale preview, I dig into form and the tactical angles worth noting. I’ve got a handicap play at close to even money for those after value on NZ betting sites.

Chelsea

Chelesa racked up four defeats on the bounce before the international break. PSG put five past them and then three more across the Champions League tie. Newcastle nicked 1-0 at the Bridge. Everton won 3-0 at Goodison. That’s 12 goals conceded in four games, which is the kind of defensive record that gets managers sacked - and Rosenior’s position has been questioned openly since the PSG humiliation.

What’s odd is that Chelsea’s cup form has looked nothing like their league form. They hammered Charlton 5-1 in the third round and then they beat Hull 4-0. Then they needed extra time at Wrexham but still scored four in a wild game that could’ve gone either way. They’ve scored 13 goals in three ties, showing just how easily they can bully teams when the quality gap is wide enough.

If Cole Palmer’s groin holds up and he starts, Chelsea go up a level - it’s that simple. Estevao came off the bench at Everton before the break and should be available too, which gives Rosenior a creative outlet he’s badly needed after weeks of looking pedestrian in the final third.

Team News: Reece James (hamstring) and Trevoh Chalobah (ankle) are both out. Levi Colwill won’t return until late April from an ACL injury. Marc Cucurella is suspended. Palmer (groin) and Malo Gusto (discomfort) face late fitness tests. Estevao should be available.

Predicted Lineup: Sanchez; Gusto, Fofana, Adarabioyo, Hato; Lavia, Santos; Garnacho, Palmer, Neto; Delap.

Port Vale

Port Vale are bottom of League One, with just seven league wins all season. Relegation is all but confirmed, and yet here they are in an FA Cup quarter-final.

Nobody at Vale Park had seen anything like that win over Sunderland - their first appearance in the last eight since 1954. Ben Waine, born in Wellington, 24 years old, capped 28 times for the All Whites, has scored the winning goal in the last three rounds. Bristol Rovers first, then Bristol City in extra time. And then that header against Premier League side Sunderland that sent the ground into absolute chaos.

For obvious reasons I’d love the story to continue, but Vale’s away form won’t let me back it - four defeats from five on the road before the break, less than a goal per league game on average this season. And going from Vale Park’s threadbare surface, where they’ve been able to level the playing field physically, to Stamford Bridge’s pristine pitch takes away their biggest weapon.

Team News: No fresh injury concerns for Jon Brady’s side. Onel Hernandez is pushing for a first start since joining in February.

Predicted Lineup: Gauci; John, Humphreys, Hall; Gordon, Walters, Ojo, Lawrence-Gabriel; Archer, Waine, Brown.

• Chelsea have scored at least four goals in each of their three FA Cup ties this season, 13 across the three rounds.
• Port Vale have kept clean sheets in four of their five cup ties, with all four wins since the first round coming by 1-0 scorelines.
• This is the first meeting between these two clubs since 1929 and their first ever FA Cup tie against each other.

Rosenior will rotate here. He always does in the cup, and with Man City and Man United coming up in the league he’d be mad not to. But I don’t think that matters. Even a reshuffled Chelsea XI should be more than enough for a side battling League One relegation.

Port Vale will set up to frustrate - that’s what’s got them here, a compact shape and clean sheets with Waine pouncing on the one chance. I admire it. But Stamford Bridge isn’t Vale Park. The pitch won’t do them any favours, and once legs start to go I’m expecting Chelsea to pull away in the second half, maybe comfortably. 

If you’re looking for football betting tips to shape your weekend, the handicap market is where I’d suggest looking, rather than backing Chelsea at a skinny $1.09.

Chelsea -2.5 Goals @ $1.95

Each of Port Vale’s cup wins since the first round has been a 1-0 grind, but that approach simply won’t work at this level. Chelsea have put four or more past every opponent they’ve faced in this competition.

Vale’s best chance is to hang in deep into the second half and hope Chelsea get frustrated. I don’t see it happening. The two-division gap is obvious and Port Vale’s players are carrying the toll of a relegation fight on top of all these cup games. Tired legs at the Bridge will open up spaces, and once Chelsea get the second goal it could unravel fast.

At $1.95, Chelsea winning by 3+ is fair value.