FA Cup: Southampton vs Arsenal - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Championship playoff hopefuls Southampton host Premier League leaders Arsenal at St Mary’s Stadium on Sunday morning New Zealand time in an FA Cup quarter-final with a Wembley semi-final on the line. A Championship side unbeaten in 14 against a squad stretched across three competitions and nursing a horror injury list - this could get interesting.

In this Southampton vs Arsenal preview, I look at the form, team news and whether Arsenal’s fitness crisis gives the hosts a real chance. I’ve found odds in the goals market that look generous for a bet on NZ betting sites.

Southampton

I don’t think people outside the Championship are paying enough attention to what’s happened with Southampton recently. Since Tonda Eckert replaced Will Still in November, the team has been transformed - unbeaten in 14 across all competitions and the highest-scoring Championship side with 50 goals. They’ve won six of their last seven at St Mary’s.

Their recent form is relentless. A 1-0 cup win at Fulham was followed by a 2-1 league victory away at Championship leaders Coventry. At home, they’ve beaten Norwich 1-0 and Oxford 2-0. Adam Armstrong has 11 league goals this season and Finn Azaz has 10. Leo Scienza has been pulling the strings with eight assists.

Team News: Roerslev is out for the season with an Achilles injury. Scienza has been nursing a groin issue but trained this week. Welington and Jay Robinson are both close to a return from muscular problems.

Predicted Lineup: McCarthy; Bree, Harwood-Bellis, Stephens, Manning; Downes, Charles; Fellows, Azaz, Scienza; Armstrong.

Arsenal

Arsenal are nine points clear at the top of the Premier League with 21 wins from 31. They’re still in three competitions, but their 2-0 Carabao Cup final loss to Manchester City before the break was a blow. Without Martin Odegaard, they managed just one shot on target in the second half at Wembley.

But their injury list is the real story coming into this clash. Close to double-digit Arsenal players withdrew from international duty. Noni Madueke picked up a knee injury playing for England against Uruguay and is likely out. Eberechi Eze has been sidelined since the Champions League win over Leverkusen with a calf problem. Odegaard has been battling a persistent knee issue since February but could return. Declan Rice and Bukayo Saka came back for assessment, though their withdrawals look precautionary.

With the Champions League quarter-final against Sporting three days after this, Arteta will rotate. Gabriel Martinelli is one to watch - four goals in three FA Cup games this season, including a hat-trick against Portsmouth.

Team News: Madueke (knee) and Eze (calf, injured in the Leverkusen win) are ruled out. Odegaard is pushing for a return but may be held back. Rice and Saka are expected to be available but could be rested. Timber, Gabriel and Saliba should all be fit.

Predicted Lineup: Arrizabalaga; Timber, Saliba, Mosquera, Calafiori; Norgaard, Merino; Saka, Odegaard, Martinelli; Gyokeres.

• Southampton are unbeaten in 14 matches across all competitions, their longest run this season.
• Arsenal got to the FA Cup quarter-final without facing a Premier League side, beating Portsmouth, Wigan and Mansfield.
• The last five meetings between these sides at St Mary’s are split at two wins each, plus one draw.
• Southampton have scored in 16 consecutive matches in all competitions.
• Arsenal lost the Carabao Cup final 2-0 to Manchester City in their last competitive outing before the international break.

Arsenal’s depth means they’ll still field a side good enough to win. But they’re managing a thinned-out squad across three competitions, with Sporting three days later. I’m not sure the hunger will be there the way it would for a league match.

Southampton, meanwhile, are peaking at the right time. Eckert has instilled belief, and the crowd at St Mary’s will be full of confidence given their team already knocked out Premier League opposition in the last round. I don’t expect them to win, but they should score.

A 2-1 or 3-1 Arsenal win feels about right. If you’re looking at this on football betting sites, the goals market is where I’d start given how freely both sides have been scoring.

Over 2.5 Goals @ $1.55

Southampton have scored in 16 straight matches. They won’t park the bus here - Eckert’s approach is centred on pressing and transitions. Azaz and Armstrong will get chances at home, and set pieces from James Bree’s delivery give them another avenue.

Even a rotated Arsenal will pose problems. Martinelli has four in three cup games, Gyokeres has 11 Premier League goals this season, and they’ve scored in every FA Cup match so far.

Both teams have reasons to attack and neither defence is at full strength. At $1.55, over 2.5 goals is the bet I’m most confident about on the best betting apps in NZ.