Brentford vs Liverpool Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Brentford welcome Liverpool to the Gtech Community Stadium in the Premier League on Sunday morning NZT, and for once I think the market has the favourite right.

Kickoff is 3am. Brentford are fourth and one of three unbeaten teams left in the league. Liverpool are ninth, and they arrive short of bodies in midfield after a 3-0 home loss to Manchester City.

My pick in this Brentford vs Liverpool preview pays $1.75, and it hands back your stake if the game finishes level. Anyone who likes to bet on football without sweating on a late equaliser should find it useful.

Brentford

Brentford have scored seven goals and conceded just one in three home league games. Tottenham and Chelsea both went home with 3-0 defeats - Sunderland are the only visitors to score there. On the road they’ve been level at full-time in every game, most recently a 2-2 at Aston Villa where Yehor Yarmoliuk scored early after a Tyrone Mings error.

I like how direct they are. Michael Kayode’s long throw set up Dango Ouattara’s opener in the 3-2 win over Liverpool here last October, and set pieces were a sore point for Liverpool all through last season. I’d be surprised if Brentford don’t go long early and often.

I can’t quite work Igor Thiago out. He’s had 14 league shots and only scored once, which feels more like a striker due a goal than one out of form.

Vitaly Janelt has two from midfield, so they’re not short of goals from deeper.

Team News: Dasilva, Milambo, Damsgaard and Schade are out. Schuster and Collins are doubts.

Predicted Lineup: Kelleher; Kayode, Ajer, Schuster, Diouf; Janelt, Yarmoliuk; Ouattara, Anthony, Lewis-Potter; Thiago.

Liverpool

Liverpool haven’t scored in their last two home league games.

Away from Anfield it’s been a very different story. Wins at Ipswich and Bournemouth came without conceding, and the 2-2 at Newcastle in August is the only time they’ve let one in on the road.

That City defeat needs context too. It was 0-0 when Ryan Gravenberch picked up a second yellow card in the 62nd minute, and City had an xG of just 0.16 up to that point. Erling Haaland scored three minutes after the red, and Liverpool fell apart from there.

But Gravenberch is banned now, and he was Liverpool’s standout before the red. I don’t know who partners Alexis Mac Allister, and I’m not sure Andoni Iraola does either.

Lewis Koumas led the line on his first Premier League start against City. I liked him on loan at Hull last season, but it’s a big ask for a 21-year-old to lead the attack on his own at a ground like this.

Team News: Gravenberch is suspended. Szoboszlai, Gakpo, Isak, Bradley, Ekitike, Leoni and Jaros are out.

Predicted Lineup: Alisson; Araujo, Jacquet, Van Dijk, Kerkez; Mac Allister, Endo; Munoz, Wirtz, Barcola; Koumas.

• Brentford are unbeaten in their last two meetings with Liverpool.
• Both teams have scored in three of the last five head-to-heads.
• Brentford’s last Premier League defeat came against Manchester City on 9 May.
• Liverpool have kept two clean sheets in three away league games.
• Brentford have scored in all six league games this season.

Brentford win this one for me.

Liverpool’s away form does give me pause. Two clean sheets on the road and a back four with Virgil van Dijk in it won’t give much away cheaply, and Florian Wirtz can win a game out of nothing.

But their midfield looks thin. With Gravenberch and Dominik Szoboszlai both out, Liverpool could be relying on Wataru Endo to screen against a side that loves fighting for the second ball.

I’m also not sure where their goals come from. Two in three home league games is a poor return, and Koumas is still finding his feet at this level.

My gut says 2-1 Brentford. A 1-1 wouldn’t shock me, which is why I’m protecting my stake rather than going for the straight win.

On goals, I’d expect both teams to score, but I wouldn’t touch the over at $1.65 with Liverpool this blunt. If they go ahead early, I’d be checking Brentford’s price on the best live betting sites rather than panicking.

Brentford Draw No Bet @ $1.75

A draw is the danger here, and this bet takes it out of play.

If Brentford win, it pays $1.75. A level score gets your money back, so only a Liverpool win beats me.

I’m comfortable with that. Brentford have been excellent at home, and Liverpool are missing the midfielder who did most of their dirty work against City.

Grab it on the best sports betting apps NZ before team news drops and the price moves.