Roma vs Real Madrid Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Jose Mourinho is going back to Rome, only this time he’s in the away dugout.

Roma welcome Real Madrid to the Stadio Olimpico on Thursday morning NZT, with an 8am kickoff, in round two of the Champions League league phase. Roma opened with a 1-1 draw at Fenerbahce, while Real Madrid beat Inter 2-1 at the Bernabeu.

I’ve been through form and team news in this Roma vs Real Madrid preview, and I don’t think the match odds tell the full story.

My favourite angle pays $4.00 for anyone keen on some football sports betting this week.

Roma

I trust Roma’s defence more than their attack right now.

Evan Ndicka was immense at Como on Sunday, and Roma hung on for a 0-0 with 10 men after a straight red in the 53rd minute. Como finished the match well on top, and Pierluigi Gollini made four saves to protect the point.

That’s two games without a win in all competitions, though. It takes a bit of shine off a fast start that included 4-0 wins over Fiorentina and Lecce.

Paulo Dybala is the man I’d watch. He likes to drift into the pockets between midfield and defence, and a Real Madrid back line that’s been patched together for weeks should give him room to work.

I’d also expect Wesley and Nahuel Molina to push high from wing-back, which is where Roma can pin Madrid in their own half. That’s a gamble against Vinicius Junior on the counter, mind you.

Team News: Cristante (knee) and Svilar are doubts, as is Malen. His red card at Como only counts in Serie A.

Predicted Lineup: Gollini; Mancini, Ndicka, Hermoso; Molina, Kone, De Roon, Wesley; Soule, Dybala; Malen.

Real Madrid

Real Madrid aren’t convincing me yet.

They’re six points off Barcelona in La Liga after losses to Real Betis and Atletico Madrid, and Saturday’s 1-0 win over Villarreal was scrappy. Yan Diomande scored the winner in the 62nd minute, and they finished with 10 men after Vinicius Junior was sent off for pulling Nathan Saliba’s hair.

Kylian Mbappe had a frustrating night in that one, wasting two good chances. I’m not writing him off after he scored against Inter in the opener.

Their defence worries me more. They’ve conceded in six of their eight league games, and if you’re comparing prices across sign up bonus sites, the Madrid price looks short to me on that record alone.

Team News: Rodrygo, Mendy, Asencio and Militao are all out. Valverde is a doubt. Vinicius Junior’s red card only applies in La Liga.

Predicted Lineup: Courtois; Alexander-Arnold, Konate, Rudiger, Carreras; Tchouameni, Camavinga; Guler, Bellingham, Vinicius Junior; Mbappe.

• Real Madrid have won the last four meetings between these sides.
• Roma failed to score in all four of those defeats.
• Roma have four clean sheets from six Serie A games.
• Real Madrid have conceded in six of eight La Liga games.
• Roma are unbeaten in Serie A this season.
• Real Madrid have scored 19 goals in eight La Liga games.

I’m siding with Real Madrid, but not with much conviction.

Mourinho’s history here adds a bit of spice. He won the Conference League with Roma in 2022 and took them to a Europa League final the following year, so he knows how loud the Olimpico gets when the hosts are on top. I can’t see him letting this one turn into an open game.

Roma at home with that back three gives them every chance, and I wouldn’t be shocked by a draw. Still, Real Madrid have more players who can settle a game with one moment, and that’s usually what decides nights like this.

For me, goals will be hard to come by. Roma have managed four in their last three outings, but they drew a blank at Como despite Lorenzo Pellegrini striking the post early on.

Dybala could nick one, I’ll admit that. I just think Madrid’s front line gets the decisive chance and Thibaut Courtois does the rest. A 1-0 away win feels right to me.

My nagging worry is Madrid’s back line, given what they’ve shipped domestically.

Real Madrid to Win to Nil @ $4.00

Madrid’s record against Roma is my starting point.

They’ve won four straight meetings without conceding, including 2-0 wins at the Olimpico in 2016 and 2018. Different players and different managers, I know. Still, Roma’s attack has looked blunt lately, and Courtois was excellent against Villarreal once Madrid were down to 10.

Roma will need to come forward at some stage, and that leaves space for Mbappe and Vinicius Junior to attack on the break.

That result has come in four times running between these two, so I’ll take $4.00 on it through one of the legal betting sites available here.