Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Manchester United couldn’t have picked a worse week to visit Atletico Madrid.

Kick-off is 8am on Wednesday NZT at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano, the second round of the Champions League league phase. Atletico have won four straight since losing their opener at Anfield, and they’ve dropped just two La Liga points at home all season. United have won once in six and are 12th in the Premier League.

In this Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United preview, I look at form and team news for both sides.

I’ve also got a half-time angle at $4.75 for anyone wanting to bet on football with a bit more upside this week.

Atletico Madrid

Atletico are scoring freely.

They’ve put 18 past La Liga opponents in eight games and scored at least twice in each of their last four. That stretch includes a 2-1 derby win over Real Madrid on 20 September, and Saturday’s 2-1 victory at Alaves came courtesy of a late Cristian Romero goal.

Alex Baena is the one I’d watch. He’s got four league goals already and set up another at Alaves, and he’ll fancy his chances down United’s right. His assist price is worth a look on most betting apps.

I’m a little wary of the Anfield result, mind you. Atletico took an early lead at Liverpool and still lost 2-1.

Team News: Barrios is a doubt. Alvarez and Sorloth are back from knocks.

Predicted Lineup: Oblak; Llorente, Romero, Le Normand, Grimaldo; Hjulmand, Cardoso; Simeone, Lee, Baena; Alvarez.

Manchester United

I can’t see where United’s next win is coming from.

Their 4-0 thrashing of Sabah on 10 September is the last one. Manchester City played over an hour at Old Trafford with 10 men and still won 1-0, then Brighton knocked United out of the League Cup despite trailing 2-0 inside 10 minutes.

Saturday was the worst of the lot. Bryan Mbeumo scored first against Spurs, and Rodrigo Bentancur was sent off on 78 minutes. Dominic Solanke still headed in a stoppage-time equaliser.

Bruno Fernandes and Matheus Cunha can hurt anyone on the break, and Carlos Baleba made his competitive debut against Spurs. But United have conceded in every Premier League game this season, and Atletico’s attack is sharper than most they’ve faced.

Team News: Dorgu, De Ligt, Ugarte and Heaton are out. Sesko, Mazraoui, Mainoo, Rashford and Diallo are doubts.

Predicted Lineup: Lammens; Dalot, Maguire, Martinez, Shaw; Tielemans, Baleba; Mbeumo, Fernandes, Mount; Cunha.

• United have never beaten Atletico in four competitive meetings.
• Atletico knocked United out in the 2021-22 Champions League last 16.
• Atletico have won six of their eight La Liga games.
• United have won two of their eight matches this season.
• Barcelona are the only La Liga side above Atletico.

I’m with Atletico here.

It’s hardly a bold call at $1.91. But I’ve looked hard for a reason to side with United and come up empty. Atletico are scoring plenty at home and have won four on the bounce, while United are a side without much belief right now.

My worry is the opening half. United have been poor before the break all season, and Atletico can be slow to get going against teams that defend deep. I can see a cagey first 45 minutes with very little between them.

After that, I’d expect the home side to take over. I don’t trust United to see out a tight game in Madrid. Not after Spurs.

Goals are trickier. Over 2.5 at $1.72 isn’t a price I’d chase, though BTTS is live given United’s attackers. I’ll go 2-1 Atletico, with a 1-1 my backup if Baena has an off night.

Half-Time/Full-Time: Draw/Atletico Madrid @ $4.75

Atletico’s last two league wins followed the same script.

The derby against Real Madrid was 0-0 at half-time before they won 2-1. Alaves were level at 1-1 at the break on Saturday too, and it took Romero’s late goal to settle it.

United have rarely scored before half-time in the Premier League this season. I’m not expecting them to strike early here either, and I’d back them to frustrate Atletico for a while.

After the break is a different story. I don’t trust United’s back four over 90 minutes, especially with Atletico able to bring Ademola Lookman and Alexander Sorloth off the bench to chase a winner.

The risk is an early Atletico goal, which would kill the bet straight away. I’ll wear that.

At $4.75, I’d rather take it now than wait for it to shorten on the best live sports betting sites once the first half settles.