Premier League: Everton vs Chelsea - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

I fancy goals in this one. Everton and Chelsea meet at the Hill Dickinson Stadium on Sunday morning New Zealand time in a Premier League match with genuine European implications, and I can’t see either defence holding firm for 90 minutes. 

Chelsea sit sixth on 48 points but they’re reeling on four defeats from their last six, and an 8-2 aggregate Champions League exit to PSG. Everton are eighth on 43 and look primed to make a move. 

In this Everton vs Chelsea preview, I’m looking at a same-game multi around $4.00 on betting apps NZ that I think offers real value.

Everton

I like what David Moyes has done with this squad. They’ve bagged 24 away points, second only to Arsenal. The problem - and it’s been one all season - is what happens at home. Just five wins from 15 at the Hill Dickinson Stadium.

Of course, the new ground factor plays into that. Everton are still adjusting, and Moyes has said as much. But when you’re chasing Europe and your home record is the 14th best in the league, that’s not going to work.

Their recent form is mixed. Their 3-2 win in Newcastle was gutsy, and the 2-0 result against Burnley looked controlled. They also held Arsenal scoreless until the 89th minute before Viktor Gyokeres and Max Dowman struck late to make it 2-0. So they’re competitive, just inconsistent.

Keep an eye on Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall here - he signed permanently from Chelsea last summer, six goals and three assists in the league this season, and I’d expect him to want to put on a show against his former club. Iliman Ndiaye’s pace on the break gives Everton another dimension too.

Team News: Branthwaite and Tarkowski both missed the Arsenal defeat but are expected back. George is ineligible against parent club Chelsea. Alcaraz and Grealish are long-term absentees.

Predicted Lineup: Pickford; O’Brien, Tarkowski, Branthwaite, Mykolenko; Gueye, Garner; Ndiaye, Dewsbury-Hall, McNeil; Beto.

Chelsea

What a week. Chelsea lost 1-0 at home to Newcastle, then 3-0 to PSG at Stamford Bridge - 8-2 on aggregate - and the fans booed at half-time, booed at full-time, and jeered Rosenior’s substitutions. Toxic stuff.

The club’s attacking numbers still look fine on paper, with 53 goals in 30 league matches, and Cole Palmer and Joao Pedro combining for 14. But without Reece James at right-back they’ve looked shaky, and Mamadou Sarr’s error gifting PSG the opener after six minutes on Tuesday doesn’t exactly fill you with confidence about their defensive depth. 

Fatigue is the other thing. Rosenior admitted his players have had no real break across 18 months. It showed against PSG.

Team News: James is out with a hamstring injury, while Colwill is still sidelined. Gittens and Estevao are touch-and-go. Gusto could return after illness. Jorgensen has a groin issue.

Predicted Lineup: Sanchez; Gusto, Chalobah, Hato, Cucurella; Caicedo, Fernandez; Palmer, Neto, Garnacho; Joao Pedro.

• Everton have won just one home Premier League match in 2026, a 2-0 win over Burnley on 4 March.
• Chelsea have lost four of their last six in all competitions, conceding 13 goals across that stretch.
• Chelsea won the reverse fixture 2-0 at Stamford Bridge, with Cole Palmer and Malo Gusto scoring.
• Both teams have conceded 35 goals in 30 Premier League matches.
• Chelsea have the second-best away record in the league with seven wins from 15 matches.

I’m tipping Chelsea but I’m not confident. $1.90 for an away win reflects their squad depth and that away record - seven from 15 on the road. On paper, you back them.

But context matters here. Getting dumped out of Europe 8-2 on aggregate will have stung, big time. Rosenior looks under siege - that pre-match huddle controversy won’t go away. Plus there’s a Premier League fine and a suspended transfer ban hanging over the club too. 

And then you’ve got Everton, who kept Arsenal scoreless for 89 minutes with a makeshift backline, pressing aggressively in midfield with Dewsbury-Hall and Idrissa Gueye. 

All this to say, I wouldn’t be shocked by a draw. Admittedly I said something similar before Chelsea went to Wolves and won 3-1.

What I do feel sure about is goals. Everton have scored in eight of their last 10 league outings, while Chelsea without James leak chances. Both sides have conceded 35 this season. For anyone looking for football betting tips this weekend, that’s where I’m focusing.

Chelsea to Win and Over 2.5 Goals @ $4.00

Chelsea’s recent away wins: Crystal Palace 3-1, Wolves 3-1, Aston Villa 4-1. They don’t do chill on the road - four of their last six have gone over 2.5 goals. To be fair, they’ll be eager to get away from their fans for a bit.

Everton won’t sit deep either - Dewsbury-Hall pushes forward and Ndiaye runs in behind regularly. At $4.00 on NZ betting sites, I’m backing Chelsea in a match with three or more goals.