NBA Expert Tips and Best Bets | March 18

I’ve got three NBA tips for your Wednesday afternoon in New Zealand, with a spread I’m genuinely excited about and a couple of picks where I think the value sits just right across top betting sites. We’re talking Cleveland travelling to Milwaukee, the Knicks hosting a depleted Indiana, and Charlotte getting a shot at a Miami side coming off a rare loss.

Hornets ML | $2.05 @ VipLuck

We’ve all seen how Bam Adebayo dropped 83 points on Washington last week. And yet somehow I’m still picking against Miami.

Charlotte have gone 23-12 since the start of January, a complete turnaround from their 11-22 start. Their offence has been the most efficient in the league over this time. LaMelo Ball averages 19.3 points and 7.1 assists this season, but their depth is what I love - Brandon Miller, Miles Bridges and Kon Knueppel all chip in regularly. Case in point: four guys scored 20-plus in the Sacramento win.

Miami just lost 121-117 in Orlando and their seven-game winning streak is gone. Herro shot 4-of-14 on his return. Powell came off the bench and found his touch late, but it’s still early days for those two playing together again - they’ve shared the court just 12 times all season. 

At $2.05 at home, give me Charlotte.

Knicks -13.5 | $1.90 @ Betandplay

Yes, 13.5 is a big number. But look at Indiana. They’re 15-53, with Tyrese Haliburton done for the year, Bennedict Mathurin traded out, and a very sparse-looking roster.

Jalen Brunson put up 30 and nine against Golden State on Sunday and the Knicks have won three straight. They beat these same Pacers 101-92 last Thursday. Brunson’s averaging 26.3 points this season and Karl-Anthony Towns is grabbing boards at a ridiculous rate. 

I just don’t see how Indiana keep this close at Madison Square Garden.

Cavaliers ML | $1.72 @ Betista

Giannis Antetokounmpo just put up 31 points, 14 rebounds and eight assists for the Bucks against Indiana on Sunday in only 23 minutes. When he plays, he’s a problem. But he went to the locker room during that game with a leg issue and has been battling a calf injury for weeks. His availability for this one is uncertain.

Cleveland aren’t in great form either. They got thumped at home by Dallas on Sunday - 130-120 to a team that’s 23-45. Donovan Mitchell had 26 but nobody else cared until it was too late. 

Still, Mitchell averages 28.2 per game this season and the Cavaliers are 41-27 overall. Milwaukee sit 28-39 and even with that Indiana win, they’ve gone 3-8 across their last 11. 

I’ll bet on NBA talent gaps like this all day. $1.72 is short but I’m taking it.