NRL 2026 Round 1 – Betting Tips & Predictions

After what felt like an eternity, the NRL is finally back for the 2026 season. It’s a blank slate for all 17 teams. Can the Broncos start a dynasty of their own by winning back-to-back Premierships? Will the Knights be good enough to avoid the wooden spoon again? Will we see a new contender surprise us all? All our questions and more will be answered over the next 27 rounds of action. 

Round 1 awaits, and we’re kicking things off under the bright lights of Las Vegas. So, let’s get stuck into some 2026 NRL predictions right now!

The first game of the 2026 season sees the Knights up against the Cowboys in Las Vegas. The Knights had a season to forget in 2025, finishing bottom of the table and claiming the wooden spoon. The Cowboys didn’t have the best season either in 2025, and they finished in 12th spot on the ladder. There were some rumours in the offseason that Kalyn Ponga was set to leave the Knights, but those are just rumours for now, and he is set to return after a serious foot injury.

Dylan Brown kicks off his Knights career after a move from the Eels last season. Having Ponga back, along with the addition of Brown, the Knights should be more competitive this season. On the Cowboys’ side of things, we see most notably Reed Mahoney join. It’s always difficult to pick these early rounds, but I think the Cowboys look to be the more complete side. They have also won the two most recent meetings with the Knights.

Bookmaker	Katherine’s Tip	Odds
	Cowboys to win	NZ$1.55
	Cowboys to win	NZ$1.60
	Cowboys to win	NZ$1.55

Predicted Squads

Newcastle Knights - Kalyn Ponga, Dominic Young, Dane Gagai, Bradman Best, Greg Marzhew, Fletcher Sharpe, Dylan Brown, Jacob Saifiti, Phoenix Crossland, Trey Mooney, Dylan Lucas, Jermaine McEwen, Tyson Frizell, Sandon Smith, Mat Croker, Thomas Cant & Pasami Saulo

North Queensland Cowboys - Scott Drinkwater, Braidon Burns, Jaxon Purdue, Tom Chester, Murray Taulagi, Jake Clifford, Tom Dearden, Coen Hess, Reed Mahoney, Jason Taumalolo, Heilum Luki, Sam McIntyre, Reuben Cotter, Soni Luke, Thomas Mikaele, Harrison Edwards & Kai O'Donnell

In the final Las Vegas game, we see the Bulldogs clash against the Dragons. The Bulldogs finished third in the Premiership last season, but were dispatched in straight sets in the Finals (thanks to the Storm and Panthers). The Dragons only managed eight wins during the 2025 season, and they finished down in 15th. Reed Mahoney left the Bulldogs to join the Cowboys in the offseason, which is probably the most notable loss.

A lot of the same big names for the Dragons will line up again in 2026. Will they gel more in 2026? Only time will tell. The Bulldogs come into this game as the heavy favourites, and they did beat the Dragons in both their games in 2025. However, the results weren’t necessarily massive blowouts. Both teams have players with flair, and I’m sure they want to put on a show in Vegas, so I’ll be taking the overs on points.

Bookmaker	Katherine’s Tip	Odds
	Total Points - Over 39.5	NZ$1.90
	Bulldogs to win	NZ$1.37
	Total Points - Over 39.5	NZ$1.90

Predicted Squads

Canterbury Bulldogs - Connor Tracey, Jacob Kiraz, Bronson Xerri, Stephen Crichton, Marcelo Montoya, Matt Burton, Lachlan Galvin, Max King, Bailey Hayward, Samuel Hughes, Viliame Kikau, Jacob Preston, Jaeman Salmon, Kurt Mann, Sitili Tupouniua, Harry Hayes & Josh Curran

St. George Illawarra Dragons - Clint Gutherson, Christian Tuipulotu, Moses Suli, Valentine Holmes, Setu Tu, Kyle Flanagan, Daniel Atkinson, Emre Guler, Damien Cook, Toby Couchman, Luciano Leilua, Jaydn Su'A, Hamish Stewart, Hame Sele, Josh Kerr, Blake Lawrie & Ryan Couchman

We’re back in Australia now for the clash with the Storm and Eels. The Storm finished second on the ladder in the 2025 season and made it all the way through to the Grand Final, where the Broncos just got the better of them 22-26. The Eels finished the 2025 season strongly, winning four of their last five games to finish in 11th spot on the ladder. We will be seeing somewhat of a new look Storm lineup in 2026. The biggest impact comes from the retirement of Ryan Papenhuyzen.

The big news around the Eels this week surrounds Isaiah Iongi and those questionable images, and it looks like his immediate future may be in the hands of the NRL Integrity Unit. Josh Addo-Carr is also out for the Eels with a broken thumb. We all know how good the Storm are at AAMI Park. Plus, I can’t remember the last time they lost in the first round. While the odds are a bit on the skinny side, I still see a little bit of value in the Storm.

Bookmaker	Katherine’s Tip	Odds
	Storm to win	NZ$1.42
	Storm to win	NZ$1.46
	Storm to win	NZ$1.42

Predicted Squads

Melbourne Storm - Sua Fa'alogo, Will Warbrick, Jack Howarth, Marion Seve, Nick Meaney, Cameron Munster, Jahrome Hughes, Stefano Utoikamanu, Harry Grant, Josh King, Shawn Blore, Ativalu Lisati, Tui Kamikamica, Tyran Wishart, Alec MacDonald, Jack Hetherington & Josiah Pahulu

Parramatta Eels - Isaiah Iongi, Bailey Simonsson, Will Penisini, Joash Papali'i, Sean Russell, Jonah Pezet, Mitchell Moses, J'maine Hopgood, Ryley Smith, Junior Paulo, Jack Williams, Kitione Kautoga, Jack de Belin, Tallyn Da Silva, Dylan Walker, Sam Tuivaiti & Kelma Tuilagi

A lot is happening this round, but here are the key factors that will most likely impact your bets:

1. The Broncos and Panthers clash shapes up to be the match of the round. The 2025 Premiers just edged out the Panthers in the Preliminary Final last season. Cleary has avoided a suspension, so he is clear to play, but the Broncos have the home advantage.
2. The Raiders will be looking to get back to winning ways after being dumped out of the Finals in straight sets. They face off in what looks to be a tight clash against the Sea Eagles. I think the Raiders have something to prove and will come out firing on the road.
3. The Rabbitohs were decimated by injuries last season, but heaps of stars are back, plus the likes of David Fifita have joined. They are on the road playing the Dolphins, but I think they can get the job done and return to Sydney with the two points.

Multi of the Week

My multi of the week comes across three different games in Round 1:

• Leg 1 - Brisbane Broncos vs Penrith Panthers
• Leg 2 - Manly Sea Eagles vs Canberra Raiders
• Leg 3 - Dolphins vs South Sydney Rabbitohs

We see the Warriors welcome the Roosters to Go Media Stadium in New Zealand for the first game on Friday night. The Warriors lost their last three games, which cost them a spot in the top four. They did get a home Elimination Final against the Panthers, but lost 8-24. The Roosters just scraped into the Finals, in eighth spot. They lost to the Sharks in their Elimination Final, 10-20.

Roger Tuivasa-Sheck looks reasonably likely to overcome the hamstring strain he sustained in the pre-season challenge for the Warriors. Luke Metcalf is still rehabbing his ACL injury. For the Roosters, Sam Walker is back, and hopefully his 2026 isn’t as injury-plagued as 2025 was. The Roosters snagged Reece Robson from the Cowboys, but he unfortunately broke his hand in the pre-season. Daly Cherry-Evans is no longer a one-club player and will step out for the Roosters for the first time.

Bookmaker	Katherine’s Tip	Odds
	Warriors +3.5	NZ$1.90
	Warriors +5	NZ$1.88
	Warriors +3.5	NZ$1.90

Predicted Squads

New Zealand Warriors - Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, Adam Pompey, Alofiana Khan-Pereira, Chanel Harris-Tavita, Tanah Boyd, James Fisher-Harris, Wayde Egan, Mitch Barnett, Leka Halasima, Kurt Capewell, Erin Clark, Sam Healey, Marata Niukore, Jackson Ford & Demitric Vaimauga

Sydney Roosters - James Tedesco, Daniel Tupou, Billy Smith, Robert Toia, Mark Nawaqanitawase, Sam Walker, Daly Cherry-Evans, Naufahu Whyte, Benaiah Ioelu, Lindsay Collins, Angus Crichton, Siua Wong, Connor Watson, Spencer Leniu, Egan Butcher, Nat Butcher & Blake Steep

This one sets up to be the match of the round as we see the 2025 Premiers, the Broncos, take on the always dangerous Panthers. The Broncos finished fourth on the ladder, beating the Raiders, Panthers, and finally the Storm in the Finals. After an unbelievably slow start to the 2025 season, the Panthers finished seventh on the ladder. They beat the Warriors and Bulldogs to make it to the Preliminary Final, but they couldn’t get past the Broncos, losing 14-16.

Is it time for a little bit of sweet revenge for the Panthers? It’s difficult to say, especially considering this game is at Suncorp Stadium. Both squads look fairly stable coming into this one. It wasn’t without drama for the Panthers, though, as Nathan Cleary managed to get his suspension for a careless high tackle in their pre-season match against the Tigers downgraded to a fine. Going with the Broncos as they have the home advantage.

Bookmaker	Katherine’s Tip	Odds
	Broncos to win	NZ$1.71
	Broncos to win	NZ$1.75
	Broncos to win	NZ$1.71

Predicted Squads

Brisbane Broncos - Reece Walsh, Josiah Karapani, Kotoni Staggs, Gehamat Shibasaki, Deine Mariner, Ezra Mam, Adam Reynolds, Corey Jensen, Ben Hunt, Payne Haas, Jack Gosiewski, Jordan Riki, Patrick Carrigan, Cory Paix, Xavier Willison, Ben Talty & Aublix Tawha

Penrith Panthers - Dylan Edwards, Paul Alamoti, Izack Tago, Casey McLean, Brian To'o, Blaize Talagi, Nathan Cleary, Moses Leota, Mitch Kenny, Lindsay Smith, Liam Martin, Scott Sorensen, Isaah Yeo, Freddy Lussick, Isaiah Papali'i, Liam Henry & Luke Garner

The Sharks and Titans kick things off on Saturday night at the newly rebranded Ocean Protect Stadium (previously Sharks Park or PointsBet Stadium). The home team finished last season strongly, winning four of their last five games, and ended up in fifth spot. After beating the Rosters in the Elimination Final and then the Raiders in the Semi Final, the Sharks were dislodged by the Storm, 14-22, in the Preliminary Final.

It was a different story for the Titans last season, finishing 16th on the ladder. The Sharks have a couple of injuries to key players already. Ronaldo Mulitalo suffered an ACL injury in the Pacific Championships, while Sione Katoa suffered a leg injury in the pre-season challenge. For the Titans, Kiwi Keano Kini is back from a long-term neck injury, while Jaimin Jolliffe looks to be out for the season after an ACL rupture.

Bookmaker	Katherine’s Tip	Odds
	Sharks -9.5	NZ$1.90
	Sharks -11.5	NZ$1.92
	Sharks -9.5	NZ$1.90

Predicted Squads

Cronulla Sharks - Will Kennedy, Chris Vea’ila, Jesse Ramien, KL Iro, Sam Stonestreet, Braydon Trindall, Nicho Hynes, Addin Fonua-Blake, Blayke Brailey, Oregon Kaufusi, Briton Nikora, Teig Wilton, Jesse Colquhoun, Sifa Talakai, Toby Rudolf, Thomas Hazelton & Billy Burns

Gold Coast Titans - Keano Kini, Phillip Sami, Max Feagai, Jojo Fifita, Sialetili Faeamani, AJ Brimson, Jayden Campbell, Moeaki Fotuaika, Sam Verrills, Tino Fa'asuamaleaui, Beau Fermor, Josh Patston, Klese Haas, Luke Sommerton, Chris Randall, Kurtis Morrin & Cooper Bai

The final Saturday night game sees the Sea Eagles play hosts to the Raiders. Despite winning their last three games, the Sea Eagles couldn’t snag a top-eight spot, finishing in 10th. The Raiders were the 2025 Minor Premiers, but they were dumped out of the Finals in straight sets. They lost to the Broncos in what many believe to be the best game of the 2025 season, 28-29. They couldn’t recover from that loss and then went down to the Sharks, 12-32.

The biggest question Sea Eagles fans will have is, how will they go without their prized Daly Cherry-Evans? For the Raiders, Xavier Savage looks to have overcome his shoulder injury, but Matty Nicholson could be out for a couple of weeks after suffering a shoulder injury in the pre-season. This looks to be a tight match, but I’ll be siding with the Raiders to get a win on the road to kick off their 2026 season.

Bookmaker	Katherine’s Tip	Odds
	Raiders to win	NZ$1.90
	Raiders to win	NZ$1.95
	Raiders to win	NZ$1.90

Predicted Squads

Manly Sea Eagles - Tom Trbojevic, Jason Saab, Tolu Koula, Reuben Garrick, Lehi Hopoate, Luke Brooks, Jamal Fogarty, Taniela Paseka, Jake Simpkin, Jake Trbojevic, Haumole Olakau'atu, Ben Trbojevic, Kobe Hetherington, Joey Walsh, Ethan Bullemor, Corey Waddell & Siosiua Taukeiaho

Canberra Raiders - Kaeo Weekes, Savielo Tamale, Matt Timoko, Sebastian Kris, Xavier Savage, Ethan Strange, Ethan Sanders, Josh Papalii, Tom Starling, Joe Tapine, Hudson Young, Zac Hosking, Corey Horsburgh, Daine Laurie, Simi Sasagi, Owen Pattie & Morgan Smithies

Round 1 wraps up at Suncorp Stadium with the Dolphins taking on the Rabbitohs. Despite winning their final two games of the regular season, the Dolphins just missed out on a top-eight finish (ended up in ninth). The Rabbitohs didn’t have the most consistent of seasons in 2025, finishing in 14th spot on the ladder, but they did win three of their last four games. So, both teams have a little something to prove this year. 

Selwyn Cobbo makes the Queenslander switch and is now a Dolphin, and in more good news, captain Tom Gilbert is back from injury. All eyes will be on Alex Johnston as he nears Ken Irvine's all-time try-scoring record. Cameron Murray looks set to return from injury, as does Latrell Mitchell. Plus, the Rabbitohs have picked up David Fifita from the Titans as well. I’m sniffing a little bit of an upset here.

Bookmaker	Katherine’s Tip	Odds
	Rabbitohs to win	NZ$2.00
	Rabbitohs to win	NZ$2.00
	Rabbitohs to win	NZ$2.00

Predicted Squads

Dolphins - Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, Jamayne Isaako, Jake Averillo, Herbie Farnworth, Selwyn Cobbo, Kodi Nikorima, Isaiya Katoa, Daniel Saifiti, Kurt Donoghoe, Tom Flegler, Tom Gilbert, Tom Flegler, Morgan Knowles, Felise Kaufusi, Brad Schneider, Connelly Lemuelu & Kulikefu Finefeuiaki

South Sydney Rabbitohs - Jye Gray, Alex Johnston, Latrell Mitchell, Jack Wighton, Campbell Graham, Cody Walker, Ashton Ward, Tevita Tatola, Brandon Smith, Keaon Koloamatangi, Tallis Duncan, David Fifita, Cameron Murray, Sean Keppie, Euan Aitken, Lachlan Hubner & Adam Elliott

Your NRL betting tips should be well and truly sorted now! But that’s only the first step! You now need to find the best NRL betting sites to place your bets before the first game of the round kicks off. The BettingTop10 NZ team has you covered from every angle, providing reviews on some of the best betting apps and new betting sites in the country.

Not all betting sites NZ are created equally, so checking out our comprehensive reviews is a must. We cover all the important aspects that you care about, like odds, free bets, and more. Even if you’re looking for online casinos, we’ve got you covered as well.