Rugby Union Betting Tips for the Bledisloe Cup Game 1 2026 - All Blacks vs Wallabies

The All Blacks are back home playing at Eden Park on Saturday night when they face off against the Wallabies in the first game of the 2026 Bledisloe Cup. As this is just a two-game series, a win in the first game is extremely important!

The first game in the Bledisloe Cup is almost upon us! The Bledisloe Cup always draws a lot of attention as the All Blacks do battle with the Wallabies. However, in recent years, it has been very one-sided, and the All Blacks are expected to win this game and the series once again. Before kick-off, the BettingTop10 team goes through all the most important pieces of the puzzle for you!

Odds thanks to Betista (accurate at the time of publication).

All Blacks

The All Blacks are back at home after a somewhat disappointing 1-3 series loss to the Springboks. On top of this, the injuries seem to be piling up for the home side coming into this game. However, we all know how dominant they have been at Eden Park for the past three decades.

With all the injuries, we will see some significant chances to the side. Both Richie Mo’unga and Ruben Love aren’t available, which has caused some reshuffling, and Scott Barrett returns to the starting side. The All Blacks will be looking towards Will Jordan with his speed out wide to help get the win.

Look for the All Blacks to try and stretch the Wallabies’ defence quickly and often by moving the ball around. If their backline starts to fire early, it may be too difficult for the Wallabies to overcome. There’s still plenty of attacking experience as well, despite the injuries.

Wallabies

The Wallabies were impressive with their win over the Springboks last time out in late September in Perth. They also remain unbeaten under new coach Les Kiss (with four wins and one draw). However, playing the All Blacks at Eden Park is a whole other beast.

It looks like Les Kiss has tried to keep things as similar as possible in terms of the squad from the Springboks game to this one. Most notably, Len Ikitau has been cleared to play after an ankle issue, and we will still see Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii on the wing.

Their attacking intent is what worked well against the Springboks, and they’ll have to bring that same fire if they want a chance against the All Blacks in Game 1. Their kicking game needs to be on point as well, to help put pressure on the All Blacks’ back three.

In the last five games between the All Black and Wallabies, the All Blacks have a dominant 5-0 record, dating back to August 2023. A couple of the games that weren’t played in New Zealand (either on neutral ground or in Australia) were close (23-20 and 31-28). However, the two games played in New Zealand saw a more dominant affair (33-13 and 33-24).

Looking at how these two sides have been performing as of late, the All Blacks have a 2-3 record and have lost their last three games in a row to the Springboks. The Wallabies come into this clash with a 4-0 record across their last five games (one draw included). This includes one win over the Springboks and the Los Pumas (Argentina), and two wins over the Brave Blossoms (Japan). 

The most vital trends that you should be aware of leading into this match: 

• The All Blacks have a dominant record here at Eden Park over the Wallabies. They haven’t lost at this stadium since all the way back in 1986.
• The home side have won their last 11 Tests against the Wallabies, with Australia’s most recent victory back in 2020.
• We haven’t seen the home side lose four consecutive Tests since 1998, and they are currently on a three-game losing streak.

Can you really tip a side that hasn’t won at Eden Park since 1986? It would take a very brave tipster, and that’s not me! Despite the injuries to the home side, their record at the ground means a lot. Plus, they always seem to have the Aussies’ number.

So, my betting tip is to take the All Blacks to get the win here. There’s no value in taking them for the outright win, but for them to cover the spread is more worthwhile. The -11.5 handicap may seem like a lot, but the All Blacks always seem to win big over the Wallabies at home.

Take the All Blacks to cover the -11.5 spread @ $1.83.

This shapes up to be an interesting affair. On paper, all signs point to the All Blacks, but with their recent form and pile of injuries, could this be the Wallabies’ time to strike? I’m still leaning towards the paper on this one, and while the Wallabies may be able to give the All Blacks a run for their money, the home side is still a classy outfit.