Champions League: Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Arsenal and Atletico Madrid meet at the Emirates Stadium on Wednesday morning New Zealand time with a Champions League final place up for grabs.

The first leg ended 1-1 in Madrid, with both goals coming from the penalty spot. Viktor Gyokeres converted for Arsenal before Julian Alvarez replied for Atletico after the break. Though one side will have left feeling a little more bitter than the other, as a controversial VAR call denied Arsenal a late second penalty. 

In this Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid preview, I’m looking at team news and a goals market worth exploring for those wanting to bet on football through the knockouts.

Arsenal

I thought Arsenal were the better side in Madrid. They controlled possession and created the more dangerous openings. It almost paid off too: Eberechi Eze was fouled in the area with 13 minutes left, the penalty was given, and then VAR overturned it.

Saturday’s 3-0 dismantling of Fulham was exactly what they needed before this. Gyokeres scored twice and Bukayo Saka got on the scoresheet too, his first start since the Carabao Cup final. Saka was brought off at half-time to manage his load, but he looked like the player we hadn’t seen for weeks.

Arsenal are unbeaten in 13 Champions League matches this season, 10 of them wins. They’ve conceded just six goals across those 13 games.

Team News: Timber and Merino are long-term absentees. Odegaard is a doubt with a knee knock from the first leg. Havertz missed the Fulham game but is expected to be available. Saka is fit.

Predicted Lineup: Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Hincapie; Zubimendi, Rice; Saka, Odegaard, Martinelli; Gyokeres.

Atletico Madrid

Atletico have won two of their last five across all competitions. They lost the Copa del Rey final to Real Sociedad on penalties and got beaten 3-2 at Elche in La Liga.

Their Champions League run has been gutsy, though. They beat Barcelona 3-2 on aggregate in the quarter-finals, winning the first leg 2-0 at Camp Nou. Alvarez has 10 goals in this competition, more than any Atletico player has ever managed in a single Champions League campaign. He picked up an ankle knock in the first leg but has trained and is expected to feature.

I’d be worried about their away record in Europe, though. Two wins from seven on the road. And a semi-final second leg at a sold-out Emirates is a different proposition to Camp Nou, where Barcelona gave them far too much space in transition.

Team News: Barrios is a major doubt with a hamstring injury. Gimenez is out. Alvarez and Sorloth had minor issues but are expected to travel. Nicolas Gonzalez is a doubt.

Predicted Lineup: Oblak; Llorente, Le Normand, Lenglet, Hancko; Koke, Cardoso; Giuliano Simeone, Griezmann, Lookman; Alvarez.

• Arsenal are unbeaten in 13 Champions League matches this season, the only side left without a defeat.
• Atletico have won just two of their seven away games in this season’s Champions League.
• Arsenal beat Atletico 4-0 at the Emirates in October’s league phase meeting.
• Both teams scored in 11 of Atletico’s 15 Champions League games this season.
• Viktor Gyokeres has 21 goals in all competitions for Arsenal this season.

I’m backing Arsenal to get through. The Emirates for a Champions League semi-final is about as hostile as English football gets, and Arsenal have been there before. They lost at this stage to PSG last season and I think they’ve learned from it.

Atletico are dangerous. Alvarez is clinical and Antoine Griezmann, playing his final European matches before a move to MLS, will want to go out with a performance. 

But I don’t see Atletico controlling this game. Their away form in Europe has been poor all season, and Arsenal’s defensive structure at home - William Saliba and Gabriel in particular - has been close to airtight. Six goals conceded in 13 Champions League games is staggering given the quality of opposition they’ve faced.

I don’t think it’ll be comfortable, though. Atletico will have spells in the game, and Alvarez only needs one moment. I’m going 2-1, Arsenal scoring either side of an Atletico equaliser. 

If you’re hunting for betting bonuses ahead of this one, the goals markets are where I’d focus given how open Atletico have been defensively in Europe.

Arsenal to Win and Over 1.5 Total Goals @ $2.10

Atletico have conceded 27 goals in 15 Champions League games this season. At the Emirates, where Arsenal put four past them without reply in October, I can’t see a clean sheet for either side.

The one consistent pattern across Atletico’s campaign is that both teams tend to find the net. It happened in 11 of their 15 games. It happened in the first leg.

At $2.10 for an Arsenal win with at least two goals in the match, I’m happy to have a play on it. If you’re looking through the best betting apps for this fixture, that’s the price I’d be all over.