Arsenal vs Burnley Prediction: EPL Betting Picks & Odds

Arsenal could win the Premier League title on Tuesday morning New Zealand time when they welcome the already-relegated Burnley to Emirates Stadium in their final home game of the season.

Two points clear of Manchester City with two games to go, a win here and a City slip against Bournemouth would hand Arsenal their first league championship since 2004. 

In this Arsenal vs Burnley preview, I’m looking at form, team news and the key dynamics of this one-sided fixture. There’s also a specific goalscorer price I like for anyone wanting to bet on football this week.

Arsenal

Three straight Premier League wins, all without conceding. I can’t remember the last time Arsenal looked this comfortable going into a final home fixture of the season. 

A 1-0 grind at West Ham and a 3-0 against Fulham were followed by another 1-0 against Newcastle – neither pretty, but both controlled. Arteta’s side have conceded just 26 league goals all season.

Viktor Gyokeres has 14 Premier League goals and scored twice in their 3-0 win over Fulham on May 2. He’s been blanked in the two league games since, against Newcastle and West Ham, but the Fulham display was a reminder of what he does when given space. I’d expect a similar story here against a defence that’s conceded 73 goals this campaign.

I’m less certain about what their back four will look like though. Ben White is done for the season, Jurrien Timber hasn’t played since March, and Riccardo Calafiori is a doubt after coming off against West Ham. Arteta hinted Mikel Merino could be close to a return, and he’s got Declan Rice as an emergency right-back option. It’s a lot of shuffling for a title-deciding game.

Team News: White (knee, season over), Timber (groin, out), Calafiori (doubtful). Merino nearing fitness.

Predicted Lineup: Raya; Zubimendi, Saliba, Gabriel, Lewis-Skelly; Rice, Norgaard; Saka, Eze, Trossard; Gyokeres.

Burnley

I won’t spend long here. Burnley have four wins all season, and were relegated three weeks ago. 

Mike Jackson took over from Parker after their defeat to Man City and has overseen a 1-3 loss at Leeds and a 2-2 draw with Villa. Zian Flemming is their top scorer with nine league goals and netted against Villa, so he’s at least finishing the season with a reason to compete.

Their away form has been miserable. I couldn’t find a single away win in 2026 – the last one was a 3-2 result at Crystal Palace in February. Burnley have conceded 12 goals across their last five fixtures, and the gap between these two sides is the widest of the round.

Team News: Cullen (knee, out), Roberts (heel, out), Beyer (hamstring, out). Tuanzebe a doubt.

Predicted Lineup: Dubravka; Walker, Ekdal, Esteve, Hartman; Humphreys, Ward-Prowse, Laurent; Tchaouna, Flemming, Anthony.

• Arsenal have won their last three Premier League games without conceding.
• Burnley are winless in 10 across all competitions.
• Gyokeres scored in Arsenal’s 2-0 win at Turf Moor in November.
• Burnley have failed to score in three of their last five meetings with Arsenal.
• Arsenal have conceded just 26 league goals this season, the fewest in the division.

I’m tipping Arsenal to win this comfortably. The title is right there and the Emirates will be fizzing on Tuesday morning NZT. I don’t see Burnley containing them for long.

My only hesitation is the Champions League final against PSG on May 30. There’s a chance Arteta manages minutes in the second half, which could take some of the intensity out of the last 20 or 30 minutes. 

But Arsenal will want this done early. Burnley’s record at the Emirates is appalling too – one win in the Premier League era, all the way back in December 2020.

If you’re following the Premier League run-in through the best online betting sites available in New Zealand, this is about as close to a sure thing as the season will offer. A 3-0 or 4-0 scoreline wouldn’t surprise me at all.

Viktor Gyokeres Anytime Goalscorer @ $1.45

Gyokeres scored twice against Fulham a fortnight ago, and this is the fixture to add to that tally. Burnley’s defence has been the worst in the division for months – 73 goals conceded and counting.

Arsenal need goals – not just for the three points, but for goal difference insurance in case the title goes to the final day. Gyokeres will be their focal point from the first whistle, and Burnley won’t have the structure or the personnel to deal with him. I backed him at Turf Moor in November and I’m doing it again here.

At $1.45 on the sign up bonus sites available to NZ punters, it’s short but justified.