Premier League: Arsenal vs Newcastle United - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Arsenal and Newcastle United meet at the Emirates on Sunday morning New Zealand time with the Premier League title on the line.

Arsenal have dropped six points from their last two league matches and have slipped off top spot, with City now leading the table. But Newcastle are on four straight defeats and arrive with a depleted squad.

In this Arsenal vs Newcastle United preview, I’ve got a play for the goals market that I think offers decent value on betting websites in New Zealand.

Arsenal

Arsenal’s back-to-back defeats don’t worry me as much as the scorelines suggest. They were unlucky at the Etihad - had the better of the chances and lost 2-1 to a City side that needed everything to go right. The Bournemouth loss was a 2-1 defeat at home where they had enough of the ball but couldn’t convert when it mattered.

At the Emirates, it’s been a different story. Twelve wins from 16 home league games, with their set-piece threat a constant weapon. Gabriel and William Saliba are immense from corners, and Declan Rice’s delivery from dead balls has been a huge source of goals.

Viktor Gyokeres has 12 Premier League goals from 31 appearances. The big question is whether Bukayo Saka returns - he’s been nursing an Achilles issue since the Carabao Cup final and is pushing to return, though there’s no confirmation he’s back in full training.

Arsenal do have the Champions League semi-final first leg at Atletico Madrid four days later. Rotation is unlikely for a game this important, but fatigue is worth considering.

Team News: Merino is a long-term absentee. Calafiori and Timber are doubts. Saka could return to the squad.

Predicted Lineup: Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Hincapie; Rice, Zubimendi; Madueke, Odegaard, Martinelli; Gyokeres.

Newcastle United

Four straight defeats across all competitions. A 7-2 hammering by Barcelona in the Champions League, then the Sunderland derby loss, Crystal Palace away, and Bournemouth at home. Whatever confidence Newcastle had from beating Manchester United and Chelsea in March has evaporated.

Their squad is in rough shape. Anthony Gordon hasn’t trained this week with a hip injury and looks unlikely to travel, while Tino Livramento went off against Bournemouth with a thigh problem. Joelinton is suspended after picking up his 10th booking at Crystal Palace, and Fabian Schar hasn’t played since January.

Bruno Guimaraes returned from the bench against Bournemouth after almost 10 weeks out with a hamstring injury, and he should start here. William Osula has scored in consecutive games and I’d expect him to lead the line again.

Team News: Gordon, Livramento, Schar, and Krafth are out. Joelinton is suspended. Guimaraes should start.

Predicted Lineup: Ramsdale; Trippier, Thiaw, Botman, Hall; Tonali, Guimaraes, Miley; Ramsey, Osula, Barnes.

• Arsenal have scored in 21 of their last 22 Premier League home games.
• Newcastle have lost four consecutive matches across all competitions, conceding two or more in each.
• Arsenal won the reverse fixture 2-1 at St James’ Park in September, with Gabriel heading in a 96th-minute winner.

Arsenal need this one badly. I think the pressure of the title race and the frustration from two losses in a row will fire them up for a big performance at the Emirates. Newcastle, by contrast, are limping in with a depleted squad and confidence at rock bottom.

What gives me most confidence in Arsenal here is their home record. They’ve been beaten twice at the Emirates all season in the league, and both defeats came against top-half sides on good form. Newcastle are neither of those things right now. I also don’t think Eddie Howe has the personnel to seriously bother Arsenal without Gordon’s pace on the counter.

I’m picking a comfortable Arsenal win, but I don’t expect a clean sheet. Newcastle have scored in 18 straight games across all competitions, and even in poor form, Osula has looked sharp in front of goal. Arsenal’s defence has conceded eight goals across their last four domestic games, so they’re not watertight either.

I’m thinking 3-1, maybe 2-1. If you want to bet on football this weekend, the goals angle is where I’d be looking.

Arsenal to Win and Over 2.5 Goals @ $2.30

Arsenal at home, desperate for three points, have scored 63 league goals from 33 games. Newcastle’s defence has been shipping goals for weeks - two or more conceded in each of their last four, without a single clean sheet in 18 games.

Arsenal’s own defence has been leaky enough to let Newcastle in, though. Guimaraes is back and has the ability to conjure a goal out of nowhere, and Newcastle have been finding the net even when everything else has gone wrong for them.

I don’t see this being a 1-0 grind. At $2.30 across sports betting apps, Arsenal winning with over 2.5 goals is the bet I’m going with.