Aston Villa vs Arsenal Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Aston Villa welcome defending champions Arsenal to Villa Park on Tuesday morning New Zealand time, with the two sides heading into this fixture in vastly different shape. Villa were demolished 4-0 at Brighton on the opening weekend. Arsenal strolled past Coventry 3-0.

In this Aston Villa vs Arsenal preview, I look at what’s gone wrong for Villa, where Arsenal’s title defence stands after one game, and whether the hosts can respond after a dire opening weekend.

I’ve got a clean sheet angle at over $3.00 for those following football sports betting this week.

Aston Villa

I don’t know where to start with Villa’s summer. 

Morgan Rogers and Konsa are both gone - Rogers to Chelsea for £117m, Konsa to the very club visiting on Monday for £51m. Youri Tielemans left for Manchester United. Emiliano Martinez has just been sold to Chelsea for £7.5m. And now Ollie Watkins is heading to Al-Hilal, with Romano confirming the deal this week.

Villa went into the Brighton game without a recognised striker and recorded zero shots on target across 90 minutes. Joao Gomes got himself sent off for kicking out at Georginio Rutter before half-time, and by that point they were already 4-0 down.

Gomes is suspended for this one too. Amadou Onana ruptured his ACL at the World Cup and is out long-term. Johan Manzambi, their £59.5m club-record signing, is sidelined with a knee problem. Tammy Abraham faces a fitness test.

Emiliano Buendia is the one bright spot. He looked like Villa’s only real threat at Brighton and scored six league goals last season. Alejandro Garnacho, on loan from Chelsea, should get more minutes. But I’m not sure where the goals come from without Watkins.

Team News: Gomes is suspended. Onana, Manzambi and Madjo are injured. Abraham faces a late fitness test. Watkins is expected to complete his move to Al-Hilal.

Predicted Lineup: Suzuki; Cash, Torres, Lindelof, Maatsen; Kamara, McGinn; Garnacho, Buendia, Hemmings; Abraham.

Arsenal

Arsenal put Coventry away inside 25 minutes through Kai Havertz and Bukayo Saka before Martin Odegaard added a third after the break. A week earlier they’d beaten Manchester City 3-0 in the Community Shield. 

That’s six goals scored, none conceded, two comfortable wins.

Christos Tzolis caught my eye on the left wing. Two assists against City and he looked sharp again against Coventry. At £34m from Club Brugge, he could be a serious step up from Trossard.

Bruno Guimaraes is the big question. The £75m signing from Newcastle missed the Coventry match with a groin issue, but Arteta hasn’t ruled him out. “He’s out on the pitch, he’s been in training sessions,” Arteta said this week. With William Saliba out long-term and Jurrien Timber still recovering from groin surgery, Arsenal could do without losing another key player.

And then there’s Konsa. Signed from Villa for £51m, introduced to the Emirates faithful before the Coventry game, and now potentially facing his former club ten days later.

Team News: Saliba is out long-term with a back injury. Timber is sidelined after groin surgery. Guimaraes is a doubt with a groin issue.

Predicted Lineup: Raya; White, Konsa, Gabriel, Calafiori; Rice, Lewis-Skelly; Saka, Odegaard, Tzolis; Havertz.

• Arsenal have won three of the last five Premier League meetings between these sides.
• Villa won 2-1 at Villa Park last December through a 95th-minute Buendia strike.
• Arsenal have scored ten goals across their last five competitive outings without conceding.
• Villa failed to register a shot on target across 90 minutes against Brighton on the opening weekend.
• Both teams scored in three of the last five Villa vs Arsenal league meetings.

I can’t see past Arsenal here. 

Villa are a club in crisis, shorn of their best players from last season, without a settled front line, and still reeling from the Brighton embarrassment. Arsenal looked dangerous from the first whistle against Coventry.

Villa Park itself gives me slight pause. Emery’s side beat Arsenal 2-1 there last December, and those Europa League nights were incredible. But that was a different squad. Rogers, Konsa, Tielemans, Martinez - the players who delivered those results have gone. What’s left is thin.

I’m backing Arsenal. If you’re tracking this one on best sports betting apps in NZ, the clean sheet market is where I’d be looking.

Arsenal Win to Nil @ $3.40

Villa didn’t test the goalkeeper once at Brighton. 

They had 10 men for most of it, sure, but they also went in without a striker, and that problem hasn’t been solved. If Abraham doesn’t pass his fitness test, I’m not sure who leads their line.

Arsenal conceded just 27 league goals last season, the fewest in the division. Even without Saliba, Konsa and Hincapie give Arteta quality centre-back options. Declan Rice anchors the midfield.

At $3.40 on the legal betting sites available in New Zealand, I’m comfortable with this one.