Villa vs Liverpool Prediction: Premier League Betting Tips & Odds

Aston Villa and Liverpool meet at Villa Park on Saturday morning New Zealand time in a game that could settle which of them qualifies for the Champions League.

Both sides have 59 points from 36 matches and identical records. Liverpool’s superior goal difference of +12 compared to Villa’s +4 is the only separation.

In this Aston Villa vs Liverpool preview, I’ve got a look at the form and team news - plus a BTTS angle I’m interested in at decent value for anyone checking out new betting sites this week.

Aston Villa

Villa’s Europa League semi-final performance - 4-0 against Forest at Villa Park to overturn a one-goal deficit - was one of the great matches in the club’s history. And then three days later they went to Turf Moor and drew 2-2 with relegated Burnley.

That’s the tension in this squad right now. I think most of their focus has drifted to Istanbul and the Freiburg final on May 20. Watkins has eight goals in his last 10 across all competitions, but Villa’s league form is shaky - two wins from their last six in the Premier League. Losing 0-1 to Fulham and then 1-2 to Spurs in the space of a fortnight isn’t great preparation.

I’m just not sure how hard they’ll go here. Emery might rest legs for Istanbul, and that could be enough for Liverpool to take advantage.

Team News: Onana is out (calf, targeting the Europa League final). Kamara (knee) and Alysson (adductor) are also sidelined. McGinn is available.

Predicted Lineup: Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Mings, Maatsen; Bogarde, Tielemans; McGinn, Barkley, Rogers; Watkins.

Liverpool

Liverpool’s season has been a slog. They were abysmal for a stretch in October and November, losing six of seven in all competitions at one point. While they’ve recovered since, then they still haven’t been able to string results together away from Anfield.

Their 3-2 loss at Old Trafford and that 1-1 draw with Chelsea at home sum up where they are. Ryan Gravenberch scored early against Chelsea and they couldn’t kick on. The Kop booed Arne Slot’s substitution of teenager Rio Ngumoha, and this kind of tension between the fanbase and the manager won’t help in a game this big.

Injuries could swing things, though. Mohamed Salah and Florian Wirtz were both close to returning for the Chelsea game. If either - or both - are available at Villa Park, Liverpool become a different proposition. Alisson Becker is also expected to return to the squad.

Team News: Salah (hamstring) is close to a return. Wirtz (illness) hoped to be fit. Alisson (muscular) expected back. Isak (groin) came off the bench against Chelsea and faces a fitness test. Konate limped off against Chelsea with what Slot said was cramp, but faces further assessment. Endo, Ekitike, Bradley, Mamardashvili and Leoni are out.

Predicted Lineup: Alisson; Jones, Konate, Van Dijk, Kerkez; Gravenberch, Mac Allister; Salah, Szoboszlai, Ngumoha; Gakpo.

• Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 11 meetings with Villa across all competitions.
• Villa’s last home league win against Liverpool was in October 2020.
• Both teams scored in the last two meetings at Villa Park.
• Villa have won just two of their last six Premier League matches.
• Liverpool have lost three of their last four away games in the league.

I’m leaning Liverpool, but I’m not confident enough to tip them outright at $2.20.

Their away form is terrible - three defeats in four on the road - and Villa Park will be noisy even if part of the crowd’s mind is on Istanbul.

What I do think is that we’ll see goals. Villa can’t afford to lose - a defeat and a Bournemouth win could drag them into a real scrap on the final day. And Liverpool have to win to guarantee Champions League football. Neither side will be conservative.

For those of you on live betting sites, this is a game to watch early and adjust. If Villa’s XI looks like a Europa League rotation job, Liverpool’s price will only come in.

Both Teams to Score @ $1.45

I know $1.45 isn’t a glamorous price. But BTTS has hit in both of the last two Villa Park meetings between these sides, and Villa have scored in 14 of their 18 home games this season.

Even if Emery rests a couple of bodies for the final, Watkins and Rogers will start, and they’ve been creating plenty. Liverpool’s away defence has been suspect all year - they’ve conceded in 14 of 18 on the road. 

I’d pair BTTS with under 3.5 goals at around $2.10 if you’re after a bit more value through the betting bonuses available from New Zealand bookmakers.