Aston Villa vs Forest Prediction: Europa League Betting Tips & Odds

Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest go again at Villa Park on Friday morning New Zealand time in the second leg of their Europa League semi-final, with Forest protecting a 1-0 aggregate advantage from the first leg at the City Ground.

Chris Wood’s 71st-minute penalty - awarded after a VAR review for a Lucas Digne handball - was the only goal a week ago. Villa had chances through Morgan Rogers and Ollie Watkins but couldn’t convert, and now face a familiar ask: overturn a deficit at home in Europe. 

In this Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest preview, I look at form, team news and the key dynamics of this second leg. I’ve also got a goals-market angle at over $3.50 for those checking football expert tips this week.

Aston Villa

Villa have lost three straight. Their 2-1 defeat to Spurs on Saturday was grim - Emiliano Buendia’s 90th-minute header was their only shot on target in a heavily rotated side. Prioritising this fixture over the league was always the plan, and now we’ll see if that gamble pays off.

I’m not writing them off, though. Their European home record is too good. Six Europa League wins from six at Villa Park this season, 14 goals scored. Nine straight European victories at home stretching across two campaigns. Bologna were put to four the last time Villa played in front of their own crowd in this competition.

Watkins will be desperate to score after going quiet across the recent defeats. And Buendia has four goal contributions in 12 Europa League appearances this season - a record most people are overlooking.

Team News: Kamara is out for the season. Onana is a doubt with a calf injury and faces a late fitness test. McGinn trained normally despite a tight hamstring and should be available. Alysson is also sidelined.

Predicted Lineup: Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Torres, Maatsen; Bogarde, Tielemans; McGinn, Rogers, Buendia; Watkins.

Nottingham Forest

Five consecutive wins. Ten unbeaten in all competitions. Forest’s 3-1 thumping of Chelsea at Stamford Bridge on Monday was further proof of a side playing with serious confidence right now.

I’m wary of them, though. Their xG numbers over the unbeaten run are flattering - 21 goals scored from roughly 14 xG, and just five conceded from about 11 xGA. Overperformance at that level corrects eventually, and a hostile Villa Park might be where it does.

Morgan Gibbs-White is the big question mark. He copped a nasty gash to his forehead against Chelsea after a collision with Robert Sanchez and needed stitches. Pereira said a decision on his availability would be taken on the day of the match. Forest without him are a fundamentally less dangerous side.

Team News: Gibbs-White is a major doubt with his head wound. Murillo is out with a hamstring injury. Hudson-Odoi, Savona, Boly and Victor are all done for the season. Aina, Ndoye and Sangare are fitness doubts.

Predicted Lineup: Ortega; Aina, Milenkovic, Morato, Williams; Hutchinson, Dominguez, Anderson; Gibbs-White; Igor Jesus, Wood.

• Villa have won nine consecutive European home games spanning two seasons.
• Forest haven’t won at Villa Park since October 1994.
• Both teams scored in the last three Premier League meetings at Villa Park, including Villa’s 3-1 win in January.
• Villa have failed to record a clean sheet in four consecutive matches.
• Forest have conceded just two goals across their last five outings.

I’m backing Villa to go through. The aggregate deficit is only one goal, and Villa at home in Europe have been close to untouchable this season. Emery has guided teams through tighter situations than this in continental competition, and the nine-game winning run at Villa Park isn’t a fluke.

Forest’s form worries me, I won’t pretend otherwise. But the xG gap feels unsustainable, and losing Gibbs-White would strip their attack of its most creative outlet. I can see Villa scoring early and the crowd taking over. A 2-1 win on the night feels about right - Villa through on aggregate or into extra time.

If you’re tracking this one through betting apps NZ, I’d focus on the goals markets. Villa have to attack. Forest counter well. Both defences have leaked recently.

Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams to Score @ $3.60

Villa need to win by two to go through in normal time, or score at least once to force extra time. They won’t be cautious.

Forest have scored in all five of their recent wins. Igor Jesus and Wood have found form at the right time, and even without Gibbs-White, they’ll look to exploit the space Villa leave on the counter. Over 2.5 goals has come in during Villa’s last four home games, and BTTS has occurred in the last three Villa Park meetings between these two in the league.

At $3.60, it’s a price I’m happy to back on the best legal betting sites available in New Zealand.