Champions League: Bayern Munich vs PSG – Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Bayern Munich and PSG meet at the Allianz Arena on Thursday morning New Zealand time in the second leg of their Champions League semi-final, with PSG clinging to a 5-4 aggregate advantage after an outrageous first leg.

In this Bayern Munich vs PSG preview, I’m going through form and team news ahead of the return, and I’ve found a play in the goals market I’m happy to back on new betting sites for odds around $1.45.

Bayern Munich

Bayern need to score at least two more than PSG to go through in normal time, or match the deficit for extra time. After what we saw in the first leg, I don’t think anyone would bet against them finding the net. They scored four away in Paris and still lost.

Harry Kane opened from the spot before Michael Olise smashed in an equaliser. Dayot Upamecano headed one in from Joshua Kimmich’s free kick and Luis Diaz produced a brilliant finish to bring it to 5-4. Kane has 13 Champions League goals this season. He’s having the best year of his career.

Bayern have won their last six Champions League home fixtures at the Allianz Arena, scoring 20 in the process. Kompany will be back on the touchline after serving a one-match ban in Paris. Saturday’s 3-3 draw with Heidenheim was with a rotated squad – Kane and Olise both started on the bench, with Diaz also rested.

Team News: Gnabry is out for the season (adductor). Guerreiro won’t feature (hamstring). Karl is also sidelined.

Predicted Lineup: Neuer; Stanisic, Upamecano, Tah, Davies; Kimmich, Pavlovic; Olise, Musiala, Luis Diaz; Kane.

PSG

PSG won in Paris but letting in four at home is not the plan when you’re defending the trophy. They led 5-2 with half an hour to play and still needed an anxious final 20 minutes after Bayern pulled two back.

Ousmane Dembele was outstanding. Two goals and an assist, with non-stop danger on the dribble. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia scored twice too, while Joao Neves got the other with a header from Dembele’s corner.

Their biggest loss for the second leg is Achraf Hakimi, who tore his hamstring late on and is confirmed out. Warren Zaire-Emery will likely cover at right-back, which reshuffles their midfield. Nuno Mendes played the full first leg after recovering from a thigh issue picked up against Liverpool in the quarter-finals, and should be available again.

Enrique rotated for Saturday’s 2-2 draw with Lorient. Dembele and Kvaratskhelia didn’t play a minute. Vitinha was left out entirely but has trained this week.

Team News: Hakimi is out (hamstring tear). Ndjantou is a long-term absentee. Vitinha trained this week and should be available.

Predicted Lineup: Safonov; Zaire-Emery, Marquinhos, Pacho, Mendes; Fabian Ruiz, Vitinha, Joao Neves; Doue, Dembele, Kvaratskhelia.

• The first leg was the highest-scoring Champions League semi-final in history with nine goals.
• Bayern have won their last six Champions League home games, scoring 20 and conceding six.
• PSG have scored in every knockout match this season, 21 goals across eight games.
• Kane has scored in six consecutive Champions League appearances.
• Bayern won the league-phase fixture 2-1 at the Parc des Princes in November.

I think Bayern win this on the night. The Allianz Arena in a Champions League knockout tie is one of the toughest places in world football, and all 75,000 fans will be right up for it. Bayern need only a two-goal swing to level the aggregate, and given they scored four in Paris, that doesn’t feel outlandish.

Kane is going to get chances. Olise will get chances. I’d be surprised if Bayern don’t score at least twice here. But here’s where it gets tricky for them: PSG only need to score once to force Bayern into needing three, and the way Dembele and Kvaratskhelia tore Bayern apart on the counter in the first leg, an away goal feels inevitable.

I don’t see PSG sitting deep. That’s not how Enrique operates. They’ll come with attacking intent, and that opens the game up for both sides. My gut says 3-2 Bayern on the night, PSG through 7-6 on aggregate, and another match that no one who watches it will forget. But I’m not confident at all. If Bayern score early the crowd could drag them over the line.

If you’re looking to bet on football this week, the goals market is where I’d go given how open both sides play.

Over 2.5 Goals @ $1.45

The first leg had nine goals. These two scored 43 each in this season’s Champions League before they even played each other. Bayern have put 20 past opponents in their last six home European games. PSG have conceded in five of their last six away UCL matches.

Bayern will throw everything forward from the first whistle, and PSG’s speed on the break through Dembele and Kvaratskhelia will punish them for it. I’d be stunned if this finishes under three goals.

The odds are short at $1.45, but if you’re chasing free bets or stacking it into a multi, this is close to a banker. Pair it with BTTS for around $1.90 if you want more juice.