Bournemouth vs Everton Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Bournemouth and Everton meet at the Vitality Stadium on Sunday morning New Zealand time.

This is a Premier League fixture that should produce goals if the recent history between these two is anything to go by. Both sides had contrasting opening weekends - Bournemouth led Manchester City for nearly an hour at the Etihad before two late goals cost them all three points, while Everton beat Crystal Palace 2-0 in a clinical home display.

In this Bournemouth vs Everton preview, I look at both sides’ early-season form and where the value is. I’ve got a combo bet north of $3.00 for those who bet on football with an eye for goals markets.

Bournemouth

I actually thought Bournemouth were quite good at the Etihad. 

Marco Rose’s side took the lead through Marcus Tavernier on 26 minutes and looked comfortable for long stretches, only to concede Marc Guehi’s header on 85 and Josko Gvardiol’s stoppage-time winner. A gut-punch result that didn’t do the performance justice.

Rayan was involved in everything down that left channel and looked like a player who’s going to cause problems all season. Djordje Petrovic made four saves, and their defence managed well despite holding just 34% possession.

I’m expecting more from them at the Vitality. 

Rose’s pressing game needs space to operate, and playing at home against a side that will defend a bit deeper should suit Bournemouth far better than trying to break down City at the Etihad.

Team News: Kroupi is a long-term absentee with a foot injury. Araujo and Adli are out alongside Milosavljevic. Christie is suspended. Brooks, Soler, Rodriguez and Juanlu are doubts.

Predicted Lineup: Petrovic; Smith, Silva, Hill, Truffert; Cook, Scott; Rayan, Kluivert, Tavernier; Evanilson.

Everton

Everton’s 2-0 win over Crystal Palace was exactly what David Moyes needed to open the season. Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall thundered one into the top corner before half-time, and Thierno Barry headed in from Iliman Ndiaye’s cross early in the second half. Palace had the better xG (2.04 to Everton’s 1.16), but Jordan Pickford was outstanding - four saves, including tipping Eddie Nketiah’s curler onto the post.

I’m wary of reading too much into it, though. 

Everton outshot Palace 16 to 11 but ceded 58% possession, and their xG gap is key here. Moyes’s sides can be clinical on their day, but they can’t count on Pickford rescuing them every week.

Hayden Hackney looked composed on his debut in the middle of the park. Ndiaye was arguably the best player on the pitch. Brennan Johnson came off the bench late on and could push for a starting spot after his swap deal move from Crystal Palace.

Team News: Garner is out with a groin injury. Norgaard has an unspecified issue and is a doubt. Iroegbunam is sidelined for at least six weeks.

Predicted Lineup: Pickford; Rohl, Tarkowski, Branthwaite, Mykolenko; Hackney, Dewsbury-Hall; Armstrong, Ndiaye, George; Barry.

• Bournemouth have won four of the last five Premier League meetings between these sides.
• Both teams scored in three of those five encounters.
• Bournemouth finished sixth last season and qualified for the Europa League for the first time in their history.
• Everton recorded their first opening-weekend clean sheet in five years against Crystal Palace.
• Over 2.5 goals has occurred in three of the last five league fixtures between these clubs.

I’m going with Bournemouth, though I’m not fully convinced they’ll shut Everton out. 

Rose’s pressing game looked sharp at City, and I think they’ll be a handful at the Vitality with Rayan and Kluivert out wide to stretch the pitch.

What gives me pause is Everton’s defensive setup. 

Moyes knows how to organise a side away from home, and Pickford is well protected by Tarkowski and Branthwaite. I can see Everton nicking a goal on the counter through Ndiaye, who looks like he’s found another gear this season.

If you’re using NZ betting sites this week, pay attention to the goals markets. Bournemouth need a response after the City heartbreak, and I reckon they’ll go after Everton from the first whistle.

Bournemouth Win and Both Teams to Score @ $3.40

Bournemouth at home with a point to prove after that gut-punch at City. I think they’ll get it done, but they’re unlikely to hold a clean sheet doing it.

Four of the last five meetings between these sides produced goals at both ends or at least three goals in total. Ndiaye and Barry offer enough counter-attacking quality for Everton to get on the scoresheet, but I don’t see Everton winning at the Vitality given Bournemouth’s dominance in the head-to-head.

At $3.40, I’m comfortable backing a Bournemouth win with goals at both ends on the best new betting sites in New Zealand.