Premier League: Burnley vs Manchester City - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Burnley and Manchester City meet at Turf Moor on Thursday morning New Zealand time in a midweek Premier League fixture where the result feels inevitable but the details could be interesting.

City won 2-1 against Arsenal yesterday to close the gap at the top to three points with a game in hand. Burnley are 12 points from safety and staring at relegation - a defeat here combined with a West Ham win would confirm their drop to the Championship.

In this Burnley vs Manchester City preview, I look at form, team news and where the value might be for punters. I’ve got a play in the handicap market at odds I think are generous, and it’s one to look at if you’re browsing the best betting apps for this one.

Burnley

One win from their last 11 Premier League games, and that was a 3-2 at Crystal Palace back in February. Since then, a goalless draw with Bournemouth is the closest they’ve come to a result.

Yesterday’s 4-1 at Nottingham Forest was grim. Zian Flemming gave them the lead in first-half stoppage time, and then Morgan Gibbs-White scored a 15-minute hat-trick after the break. Four second-half goals conceded against a side fighting for survival themselves.

Flemming and Jaidon Anthony are joint-top scorers with seven Premier League goals each. But 34 scored and 67 conceded across 33 league games is the worst defensive record in the division by some distance.

Team News: Cullen, Beyer, Roberts, Tresor, and Hannibal are all out. Amdouni has returned to training but is unlikely to start. Laurent is available after completing his suspension. Tuanzebe is a doubt with a calf problem.

Predicted Lineup: Dubravka; Worrall, Humphreys, Esteve; Walker, Ward-Prowse, Ugochukwu, Hartman; Anthony, Flemming, Edwards.

Manchester City

City are rolling. Four consecutive wins heading into this one - Arsenal (2-1), Chelsea (3-0), Liverpool (4-0 in the FA Cup) and the Carabao Cup final over Arsenal before that. Yesterday’s win over the Gunners was their biggest statement yet. Rayan Cherki opened the scoring before Kai Havertz equalised almost immediately off a Gianluigi Donnarumma howler. Erling Haaland then finished clinically in the 64th minute to win it.

Haaland has 23 Premier League goals this season.

With the FA Cup semi-final against Southampton next weekend, rotation is likely here. Ruben Dias has been out with a hamstring injury but was expected back for this game. John Stones could also return from a calf issue.

Team News: Gvardiol is out long-term with a broken leg. Dias is expected back. Stones is a doubt but could return. Bernardo Silva is one booking from a two-match ban. O’Reilly is fit.

Predicted Lineup: Donnarumma; Lewis, Khusanov, Dias, O’Reilly; Rodri, Bernardo; Savinho, Foden, Doku; Haaland.

• City have won 14 straight against Burnley across all competitions, scoring 46 goals in that run.
• Burnley have failed to score in four of their last six Premier League games.
• The reverse fixture at the Etihad finished 5-1, with two Maxime Esteve own goals and an Erling Haaland brace.
• City have scored in every league match since the opening weekend, a run of 31 consecutive games.
• Burnley have conceded two or more goals in five of their last seven matches.

I’m not going to pretend there’s a competitive match here. City should win comfortably. The question is how many they score and whether Burnley get one of their own.

I think Burnley might nick a goal. They scored at the Etihad in September through Anthony, and Flemming found the net at Forest yesterday. This is a side that occasionally threatens from set pieces through James Ward-Prowse.

But City have put 11 past their last four opponents across all competitions, and even a rotated side should have too much. I’m predicting 3-1 or 4-1. If you’re looking at best online sports betting options for this fixture, the handicap and goals markets are where I’d focus.

Manchester City -2.5 Asian Handicap @ $1.90

City have beaten Burnley by three or more goals in six of their last eight meetings. They put five past them at the Etihad in September, won both fixtures last season by comfortable margins, and haven’t lost to Burnley since 2015.

Their defending has been wretched all season - 67 conceded from 33 games. They collapsed after half-time at Forest yesterday, conceding four in 28 minutes. If City get ahead early, and with Haaland in this form, I can see them getting three without much trouble.

At $1.90, I’m happy to back City winning by three or more. Even if Guardiola rotates, players like Phil Foden and Antoine Semenyo can step in and still outclass Burnley. There are football betting pages across every NZ bookmaker with this market available.