Sunday May 31, 4:00am NZT, Puskas Arena
BTTS No - $1.90
Arsenal have conceded six goals across 14 Champions League matches this season and nine of those 14 games ended in clean sheets. Four of their six knockout games ended without the opposition scoring. In the semi-final, Atletico Madrid - a side with no shortage of attacking talent - managed one goal across 180 minutes.
PSG’s front line is the obvious counter-argument. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has 10 Champions League goals this season and Ousmane Dembele has seven. But Dembele was dealing with muscle fatigue as recently as two weeks ago, and Achraf Hakimi - one of their most important attacking outlets from right-back - is a major doubt with a thigh injury from the Bayern semi-final.
At $1.90 on football betting sites, BTTS No prices in a level of respect for PSG’s attack that I’m not sure they deserve against this back line.
Under 1.5 first half goals - $1.55
Both managers will have their sides drilled for this, and the early exchanges in a one-off final are always cagey. In the semi-final second leg against Atletico Madrid, Arsenal controlled 45 minutes of patient football before Bukayo Saka pounced on a Jan Oblak rebound to score the only goal.
I’d expect a similar tempo on Sunday. Arteta doesn’t chase games - he lets them come to him, and that approach has worked against every side Arsenal have faced in this competition.
Under 1.5 first half goals at $1.55 with new betting sites in NZ is the safest leg here.
Arsenal to win first half - $3.50
Arsenal scored before the break in the decisive semi-final second leg, and Saka has been involved in the biggest moments all campaign. Viktor Gyokeres has four Champions League goals this season and Saka has three of his own. Between them, they’ve accounted for more than half of Arsenal’s knockout-phase goals.
PSG will have ideas of their own. I look at Arteta’s record in knockout football this season though - two goals conceded in six matches, control in every single one - and I think Arsenal can nick an early lead and protect it.
At $3.50 on legal betting sites, it’s the pick that gives this SGM its 10x odds.
