Chelsea vs AC Milan Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Chelsea and AC Milan meet in Jakarta on Sunday morning New Zealand time at the Gelora Bung Karno Stadium, with both clubs deep into pre-season tours of Asia.

Xabi Alonso’s Chelsea have won one and lost two so far this summer, while Ruben Amorim is yet to record a victory since taking over at Milan. In this Chelsea vs AC Milan preview, I look at form, squad availability and where the value might be.

I’ve got a goals angle paying around $3.60 for anyone who wants to bet on football this week.

Chelsea

I’m not reading too much into Chelsea’s two losses. Against Spurs, Richarlison tapped in a 92nd-minute winner after Jamie Donley’s shot came off the post. And the 0-1 defeat to Juventus in Hong Kong was decided by a single moment of brilliance from Edon Zhegrova after a tight, goalless first half.

Alonso is working with a depleted squad while his World Cup players complete their rest periods, but the talent available is decent. Cole Palmer and Joao Pedro are the ones to watch. Pedro scored 15 league goals last season and looked lively in Sydney, while Palmer’s quality on the ball gives Chelsea a clear edge whenever he’s on the pitch.

Estevao Willian popped up with a header against Spurs and looks like he’s settling into Alonso’s setup.

Team News: James, Chalobah and Gusto remain unavailable as they complete post-World Cup rest periods. Lavia, Gittens and Mudryk are all available after featuring against Juventus.

Predicted Lineup: Sanchez; Acheampong, Fofana, Colwill, Hato; Caicedo, Lavia; Palmer, Pedro, Estevao; Delap.

AC Milan

AC Milan are two games without a win under Amorim. 

Against Celtic, Milan were 2-0 down before Francesco Camarda rescued them with a penalty and a header in a five-minute spell after the break. Against Inter in Perth, they were second-best for most of the night and needed a late Christopher Nkunku penalty to salvage a 1-1 draw.

Nkunku is a serious addition, thankfully. Luka Modric at 40 adds a presence in midfield, and Goncalo Ramos came off the bench against Inter for a debut cameo. Camarda has two pre-season goals from two outings and I’m curious to see how Amorim manages the rotation in Jakarta with a squad full of options up front.

I’m less convinced by the defence, though. Celtic found space easily in the first half in Glasgow, and Inter dominated before Amorim sent on his bench. Tomori and Pavlovic are experienced enough, but the full-back positions look unsettled.

Team News: Leao, Ramos, Modric and Saelemaekers have all joined the touring squad. No significant injuries reported for the trip.

Predicted Lineup: Torriani; Chukwueze, Tomori, Gabbia, Bartesaghi; Fofana, Musah; Saelemaekers, Nkunku, Leao; Camarda.

• Chelsea won last year’s pre-season meeting 4-1 at Stamford Bridge in August 2025.
• Amorim has drawn both of his first two matches as Milan coach.
• Chelsea scored 10 goals across their first two pre-season outings before being shut out 0-1 by Juventus.
• Milan have failed to record a clean sheet in either of their two pre-season fixtures.
• Chelsea beat Milan 3-0 and 2-0 in two Champions League group-stage meetings in October 2022.

I’m going with Chelsea, though I don’t have huge confidence in this tip. 

Alonso has had more time on the training ground with the core of his squad, and Palmer plus Pedro give them more cutting-edge attacking quality than anything Milan have produced so far.

Milan’s defensive struggles worry me. Celtic and Inter both found gaps without too much trouble, and I expect Chelsea to do the same. A 2-1 or 3-1 win for Chelsea feels about right, with both managers ringing the changes in the second half and the game opening up late.

For those looking to get involved using the free bets available at top NZ bookmakers, the goals markets look worth a look again here.

Over 3.5 Goals @ $3.60

Chelsea’s opening two games generated 13 goals combined (6-4 and 1-2 against Spurs), with only the 0-1 Juventus defeat slowing the run. Milan’s two outings have produced six goals between them, and they haven’t held a clean sheet yet.

Amorim and Alonso will both rotate through the second half. That’s when these friendlies tend to open up - fresh legs, looser structure, defensive lapses from players still finding their rhythm. Chelsea have Jackson and Kellyman ready to come off the bench, and a handful of young attackers will be desperate to impress.

At $3.60, it’s good value for a fixture profile that points to goals from both ends. I’d look for this one on the best sports betting apps NZ has available to Kiwi punters.