Chelsea vs Juventus Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Chelsea and Juventus meet in Hong Kong on Wednesday night New Zealand time as part of the Hong Kong Football Festival, with kickoff at 11:30pm NZT. It’s Chelsea’s third pre-season outing, Juve’s fourth, and the first time they’ve faced each other since the 2021-22 Champions League group stage.

In this Chelsea vs Juventus preview, I look at what both squads have produced so far this pre-season and where the value is in a goals-heavy friendly. I’ve got an over/under angle at $1.80 for those eager to get involved on new betting sites ahead of the new season.

Chelsea

Xabi Alonso’s first two friendlies as Chelsea manager have been eventful. A 6-4 win over Western Sydney Wanderers was followed by a 1-2 loss to Tottenham in Sydney on Saturday, and I’m not sure what to take from either result.

Joao Pedro grabbed a hat-trick against WSW, scoring three times in nine minutes to turn a 3-4 deficit on its head. Estevao scored the equaliser against Spurs before Richarlison’s 92nd-minute winner. So there’s attacking output there, even if their defence looks far from settled.

I like Alonso as an appointment. What he did at Leverkusen was the best coaching job in Europe over the past three years, and Chelsea need that sort of tactical discipline after a dire 10th-place Premier League finish. He’s working with a reduced squad, though. 

Team News: James, Chalobah, Gusto, Enzo Fernandez and Rogers still away after the World Cup. Caicedo and Jackson have linked up with the touring squad. Quenda and Emegha are nursing minor injuries and didn’t travel.

Predicted Lineup: Sanchez; Acheampong, Fofana, Colwill, Hato; Caicedo, Lavia; Estevao, Palmer, Gittens; Joao Pedro.

Juventus

Luciano Spalletti’s side have been more controlled this pre-season. A goalless stalemate with Basel and a 1-0 win over Standard Liege were followed by a 2-0 victory against Nice on Friday. I mean, this is hardly fireworks, but Spalletti has always been about structure before everything else.

Juve finished sixth in Serie A last season, which earned them a Europa League spot for 2026-27. Their Champions League campaign ended at the knockout round playoff stage against Galatasaray, and Spalletti has a point to prove with his first full campaign in charge. Koopmeiners is back from the World Cup and came off the bench against Nice, but Bremer, McKennie, Conceicao, Jonathan David and Kenan Yildiz are all still away.

Edon Zhegrova is the one I’m watching. He’s got real quality on the ball, and with Openda gone to Lyon on loan, Spalletti needs others to step into attacking roles. Locatelli and Cambiaso provide a solid base even with so many names absent.

Team News: Bremer, McKennie, Conceicao, David and Yildiz are all on post-World Cup breaks. Koopmeiners returned against Nice. Openda has joined Lyon on loan. Douglas Luiz and Arthur are expected to depart this summer.

Predicted Lineup: Di Gregorio; Cambiaso, Gatti, Kalulu, Cabal; Locatelli, Koopmeiners; Zhegrova, Miretti, Adzic; Ekhator.

• Chelsea have scored seven goals across two pre-season games this summer.
• Juventus haven’t conceded a goal in three pre-season friendlies so far.
• Chelsea beat Juve 4-0 in their last home meeting during the 2021-22 Champions League group stage.
• These two haven’t faced each other since November 2021.
• Both clubs are without several key World Cup players for this fixture.

I’m leaning Chelsea, but with low confidence. Alonso has a stronger attacking group available, even without his full squad. Palmer and Estevao have already looked sharp, and Joao Pedro’s hat-trick against WSW was eye-catching regardless of the opposition.

Juve will be more disciplined. Spalletti’s sides don’t concede easily - three clean sheets in three games proves that - and he’ll want a more structured performance than what Chelsea produced in Sydney. But I think Chelsea’s extra pace out wide gives them the edge in a game where both managers will rotate freely.

For those tracking football betting prices on pre-season friendlies, this one should produce goals. Chelsea’s defence has been open in both outings, and Juve will have to come out of their shell against better opposition than they’ve faced so far.

Over 2.5 Goals @ $1.80

Chelsea scored six against WSW and conceded four. They conceded two against Spurs as well. That’s six goals shipped in two friendlies, and Alonso isn’t going to prioritise clean sheets at this stage. He wants to see attacking combinations develop and pressing patterns take shape.

Juve were tighter against Basel and Standard Liege, but those were low-key European friendlies against weaker sides. Chelsea’s pace out wide - Estevao and Gittens on either flank - will test Spalletti’s defensive shape in ways it hasn’t been tested yet.

Over 2.5 goals at $1.80 is a price I’m comfortable with on the best legal betting sites available in New Zealand.